Dairy Belarus: business as usual Discarding speakers on the principle of reliability VI Export forum "Dairy Belarus" is held in a special format, foreign speakers take part online. This is due to compliance with the requirements during the pandemic. At

The leitmotif of the forum is that everything is good in the country and in the industry, and we need to do everything so that it becomes even better. The country is going through a serious political crisis that affects all spheres of Belarusian life. The dairy industry is not immune from this crisis. An example is the dismissal of employees of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Belarus for speaking out about violence on the streets of Belarusian cities. PioneerProduct LLC reports this with reference to the Green Portal publication. The news agency reports that among the scientists who lost their positions at the academy, there are also representatives of the dairy market - Oleg Dymar, Nikolai Kozel, Yaroslav Romanovsky, Nadezhda Lutskovich. According to information from a closed source LLC PioneerProductit became known that a petition against violence, which was signed by more than 1000 scientists in August, was a possible reason for the dismissals.

However, these topics are not discussed at the key industry event of the Republic of Belarus. Holding an event at a time of crisis in all respects is a very good idea, it is at such times that it is worth talking about the future, prospects, but speaking honestly, without hushing up real problems.

At the same time, the dairy industry of the Republic of Belarus has something to be proud of. Belarus is modernizing enterprises, increasing the production of dairy products, and diversifying exports. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Republic of Belarus in 2019, the export of dairy products from the Republic of Belarus is 2342.9 million dollars, which is 34% higher than in 2015. By 2025, it is planned to increase the export of dairy products in monetary terms to 3120.7 million dollars, by 2030 - up to 3959 million dollars. At the same time, Belarus is really making a lot of efforts to diversify export deliveries. The share of supplies of dairy products to Russia in 2015 was 96.6% (taking into account the embargo introduced in 2014, this is a quite understandable figure), in 2018 the share decreased to 78%, in 2019 it was 87.7%, this is a significant volume of supplies and dependence on a key sales market.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Republic of Belarus takes into account the growing production of raw milk and dairy products in Russia and plans to increase supplies to non-CIS countries. In 2019, the share of supplies of dairy products from the Republic of Belarus to non-CIS countries amounted to 4.2%, in 2020 (according to data for eight months of 2020) the share was 6.1%. According to data for 2020, 58.8% of all dairy exports of the Republic of Belarus to non-CIS countries are milk powder . It is planned to diversify not only the geography of export deliveries, but also the range, to increase exports to non-CIS countries, especially to China, the share of dairy products with high added value. It is curious that in order to increase the competitiveness of Belarusian dairy products on the world market, among other things, it is proposed to enlarge enterprises and consolidate the industry. In what format this will take place and whether the form of ownership will change is still unclear. In general, the prospects for the development of the Belarusian dairy industry, we are talking primarily about the development of exports, are assessed very positively.

However, it is not only the Belarusian Ministry of Agriculture and Food that is broadcasting optimism and positive to the masses; on the Russian market, industry lobbyists and the Ministry of Agriculture also speak positively about export opportunities and strongly support the development of this topic, noting that today most of the fears associated with the pandemic have not come true and in many ways market stability was due to state support.


Opinion
In 2019, according to the ministry, the Republic added both in terms of milk production - 7112.7 thousand tons against 7034 thousand tons at the end of 2018, and in sales - 6374.3 thousand tons against 6266.3 thousand tons . Belarus has developed its own program for the development of the dairy industry and according to it, by 2025, 9.2 million tons of milk should be produced in the country and almost all of it should be processed. According to estimates, in 2020 the country will produce 7.5 million tons of milk.
One of the participants in the Belarusian market in the commentary of PioneerProduct LLC expressed his opinion on the situation in the dairy industry of Belarus.

“We were promised for processing in 2015 - 9 million tons, and by 2030 in general 11.4 million tons. Even under the most optimistic scenario, by 2030 the volume of processing will not exceed 7.5 million tons. But this is my opinion. Back in 2012-2013, I thought that by 2020 there would be no Russian market for Belarusian milk. However, a miracle happened, counter-sanctions appeared, and this made it possible, with reservations, to realize the potential of cheese-making enterprises," the source said. According to him, the enterprises of the Republic of Belarus have the main problem - the instability of quality and low ripening terms. One could live with this, but this time has passed, emphasizes the expert.

But given the fact that the Russian milk market has been steadily gaining ground in recent years, “the window of opportunity for Belarusian fodder cheese is closing completely.” And growth in other markets with its low rates does not compensate for the loss of the Russian market. -

not the best option, since the competition on it will intensify with European giants, who know perfectly well how to develop new markets. there will be a drawdown in sales volumes. In the last couple of years, Russian dairy products have outperformed Belarusian ones in quality, and are gradually crowding out quantitatively," the market representative says.

According to him, work in low-margin segments of the market is typical for both the Belarusian and Russian dairy markets.

“In the West, no one is embarrassed by investments in research and development and marketing at the level of 5-8% of turnover. Therefore, they take much more from a liter of processed milk. Science (technological research, standards, control methods - exploratory research in milk) is the best business. However, many people still do not realize that the policy for the development of the industry needs to be built. And for this it is necessary to pour in money, forces, personnel. And clearly understand that the part will go, as it were, “for nothing”. But this “wastelessly” cuts off unpromising scenarios, and this, oddly enough, is much more important than the search for promising ones. After all, there is nothing worse than production and goods that no one needs," the expert emphasized.