Why the US renewed sanctions against Venezuela

The US has withdrawn its decision to suspend sanctions on Venezuela's oil and gas sector due to the "lack of progress between [Venezuela President Nicolas] Maduro, his representatives and the opposition." The corresponding statement was published on the State Department website on January 30, the restrictions will come into force on April 18. Washington also announced the suspension of the license that allowed transactions with the Venezuelan state-owned gold mining company Minerven. US entities will have 14 days to terminate transactions that were permitted by the lapsed document.

What is the reason for the US decision?

The reason for all these measures was the decision of the Supreme COURT of Venezuela on January 26, which prohibits the leader of the Vente Venezuela movement, Maria Corina Machado, from holding public office until 2038. Thus, the main opposition candidate lost the right to run in the presidential elections that will be held in Venezuela this year (their date has not yet been finalized). In October 2023, Machado won the opposition primaries, where she scored 92.35% (the government of the country expressed doubts about the reliability of this result).

The Supreme Court's decision, as noted in Washington, does not correspond to the content of the so-called Barbados Agreements. We are talking about a document that was signed on October 17, 2023 by representatives of the ruling party (Chavistas, supporters of President Maduro) and the Venezuelan opposition. He guaranteed all parties in the country the right to nominate their candidates to participate in the presidential elections. Their approximate period was also agreed upon - the second half of 2024 . As a sign of support for this agreement, the United States suspended sanctions against the Bolivarian Republic until April 2024.

The United States imposed sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector after Nicolas Maduro won the presidential election for the second time in 2019. The opposition disputed their results, and Washington also did not recognize them. American companies were prohibited from doing business with any authorities or enterprises controlled by the government of the Bolivarian Republic.

The United States tried to negotiate with Caracas to continue the normalization process in the country. John Kirby, strategic communications coordinator for the US National Security Council, warned that the Venezuelan leadership has until April to implement agreements with the opposition, otherwise economic restrictions will be renewed. The republican authorities called this blackmail. Maduro accused the US of “economic genocide.” He noted that Venezuela was able to independently cope with the consequences of sanctions. “Without depending on anyone, without asking anyone, without kneeling, we are slowly healing the wounds inflicted by the sanctions missile,” he said.

According to the Venezuelan Financial Observatory, in 2023 the country's inflation rate fell from 305 to 193%. And although Venezuela still remains the world leader in this indicator, analysts noted a positive trend for the first time in many years (in 2018, inflation in the Bolivarian Republic exceeded 130,000%).

Having not received the expected reaction, the United States decided not to wait until April and renewed sanctions. The State Department noted that it will continue to work with the international community and all “democratic players across the political spectrum in Venezuela” to promote a return to the principles of the Barbados Agreement.

Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez warned Washington of imminent countermeasures. In response to the sanctions, Caracas may cancel repatriation flights for Venezuelan migrants from February 13.

What will happen now to the presidential elections in Venezuela?

The exact date of the presidential elections in Venezuela has not yet been agreed upon. The HEAD of the opposition delegation to the negotiations with the Chavistas, Gerardo Blade, said that the Supreme Court decision violated the Barbados Agreements. He recalled that the nomination of any candidate for elections was a mandatory condition. Blyde noted that the opposition bloc decided collectively to nominate Machado and will not give up on it. Machado herself said that she would not allow elections to be held without her. “Whether Maduro wants it or not, he will have to measure himself against me,” she said at a news conference, calling the decision to disqualify her a “judicial crime.”

The Chavistas now argue that the election date should be determined by the people. “We invite all Venezuelans to prepare a schedule for the presidential elections next Monday. We will submit the proposals of all people to the National Electoral Council. In Venezuela, decisions have long been made by the people,” Parliament Speaker Jorge Rodriguez said on January 30. Maduro supported the decision: “I wholeheartedly support the call for broad and inclusive dialogue to set a timetable for the 2024 elections... We are the guarantee of peace... Elections are coming soon.”

Neither the opposition nor the Chavistas are ready to directly declare their rejection of the Barbados Agreement. Blyde promised not to even file a complaint in connection with the Supreme Court's decision in the Machado case of Norway, which is acting as a mediator in the negotiation process. Rodriguez, who leads the Chavista delegation there, also said that the authorities support the Barbados agreements, despite the “constant attacks on the constitutional process.”

An expert on Venezuela, an employee of the National University of Rosario (Colombia), Ronald Rodriguez, believes that Maduro will try to delay the agreement on the election date because he is aware of his low level of popularity. “In fact, Nicolas Maduro may try to postpone the elections or create a tool that will not allow another candidate to be chosen,” he told RBC.

Support for the opposition in the country is now stronger than ever, because for the first time it is led by a politician who is more right-wing than before. In addition, Rodriguez points out, an indicator of Maduro’s low rating was the so-called referendum on the annexation of the disputed Essequibo region. And although, according to Caracas, 95% of voting participants were in favor of its accession, this did not lead to a serious mobilization of society, the expert notes.

On December 3, a referendum was held in Venezuela, 95% of the participants approved the inclusion of the oil-rich Essequibo region in northeastern South America into the country. The territory west of the Essequibo River of the same name with a total area of ​​160 thousand square meters. km occupies three-quarters of Guyana and is now under its administration. Since the beginning of the 19th century, the two states have been arguing about the ownership of these lands.