The founder of Andurand Capital predicted oil at $140 per barrel

Europe has learned to live without energy supplies from Russia, and underestimating such readiness for adaptation has become a serious miscalculation in Moscow. As a result, she "already lost the energy war,"

Russia has already lost the energy war with the European Union, as the Europeans quickly learned to do without Russian energy supplies. This was stated in an interview with the Financial Times by one of the largest traders in the energy sector, Pierre Anduran.

“I think Putin has lost the energy war. The very high gas and electricity prices in Europe were very bad for the global economy, but they are now back at more reasonable levels. Now that Europe is used to living without Russian gas, why would they even go back to it?” Anduran said.

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“I think it was a serious miscalculation. Russia has lost its biggest customer forever, and it will take at least a decade to build enough pipelines to Asia. And if Russia can only sell gas to China, Beijing will be able to dictate the price,” Anduran said.

The businessman, whose company Andurand Capital manages about $1.4 billion in assets, said he closed all his positions in the gas market, as it is unlikely that prices will ever return to previous record levels. Bloomberg previously reported that in 2020, the largest of Anduran's hedge funds made a profit of 154%, in 2021 it fell to 87%, and in 2022 - to about 50%. According to Anduran himself, over the past three years, the total profit of his Commodities Discretionary Enhanced fund amounted to about 650%.

The historical maximum of exchange prices for gas in Europe was recorded on March 7, 2022, when the cost of fuel exceeded $3,800 per 1,000 cubic meters. At the end of 2022, the EU countries agreed on a gas price ceiling at all European hubs in the amount of €180 per megawatt hour (about $2,000 per 1,000 cubic meters).

But world oil prices , according to Anduran, have fallen too much in recent months, and therefore, already in 2023, against the backdrop of a recovery in oil demand in China, a barrel will again rise in price to $140. “The opening of China will lead to a much stronger increase in oil demand than previously expected,” Anduran believes.

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According to him, in 2023, thanks to the recovery of the Chinese economy, global oil demand could grow by 4 million barrels. per day, while usually the average annual growth was four times less. Therefore, even the absence of problems with the supply of oil to the world market from Russia, which is actively looking for new buyers in Asia and is ready to provide those with serious discounts, will not delay the rise in prices.

In this situation, Anduran is sure, $140 per barrel cannot be called an “insanely high price”, especially considering that back in 2008 the cost of a barrel of Brent rose to $147.5, and the inflation accumulated since then has significantly reduced the price of the dollar.

Goldman Sachs predicted oil prices to rise to $100 per barrel by December Investments