МВФ предупредил о бедном «фрагментированном мире» из-за США и Китая

The IMF warned of a poor "fragmented world" because of the US and CHINA. According to analysts, this trend also threatens the banking system,

Tensions between the US and China are leading to a "fragmentation of the world" and the transfer of production to more friendly jurisdictions, this threatens to cause short-term damage to the global economy of 1% of global GDP in five years and 2% in the long term. Such an assessment is contained in an article by IMF experts published on the Fund's website.

“Overall, a fragmented world is likely to be poorer. While there may be relative—and possibly absolute—benefits from relocation, such benefits are subject to considerable uncertainty.

As BLOOMBERG points out, this risk analysis has become "one of the most high-profile" since the CORONAVIRUS pandemic on global economic damage.

Fund experts pointed out that the dynamics of long-term investments in financial markets or industries have already begun to show the consequences of growing tensions between Washington and Beijing. According to the organization, foreign direct investment from the second quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of last year fell by almost 20% compared to pre-COVID levels.

Growing mistrust between the US and China could also affect the banking system, as disruptions in supply chains and commodity markets hurt domestic economic growth and fuel inflation. This pressure, according to IMF experts, could force banks to take less risks and reduce lending, which will further slow economic growth.

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In January, the fund published an article by the HEAD of the organization, Kristalina Georgieva, who indicated that estimates of the decline in the global economy from fragmentation range from 0.2% to 7% of global GDP, which is roughly equivalent to the combined annual output of Germany and Japan.

“Pragmatic measures to combat fragmentation may not be the simple swing of a sword that cuts the Gordian knot of global problems. But any progress we can make in restoring confidence and intensifying international cooperation will be critical,” the head of the IMF wrote.

This year 2023 will be "another" difficult year for the global economy, Georgieva warned in a speech in March. Then she called for solving problems to rely on solidarity and cooperation between countries.