Soyuzmoloko: commercial milk production in Russia will hardly grow in 2021

The production of marketable milk in Russia in 2021 may grow by no more than 1% due to a decrease in herd productivity along with an accelerating reduction in the number of cows.

This was announced during an online conference by the director of the analytical department of the National Union of Milk Producers (Soyuzmoloko) Alexei Voronin.

“This year, probably within 1%, it will be possible to expect an increase in commodity production - no more than 150-200 thousand tons. Next year, most likely, the pace may increase slightly, but not significantly,” Voronin said.

The production of marketable milk (raw, coming from farms for processing - ed.) in Russia in 2020 amounted to 23.5 million tons, in 2019 - 22.5 million tons.

According to Soyuzmoloko, 18.1 million tons of milk were produced in the nine months of this year, which is 0.5% higher than in the same period last year.

“We do not expect a serious increase in commercial milk production. And since the key factor is the decline in profitability and productivity, together with the accelerating reduction in the number of cows, there will be a serious increase in the next year, as was the case in 2020-2019, when we saw growth in the market at the level of 1 million tons of marketable milk, probably not to be expected,” Voronin said.

The increase in the cost of the feed base in 2021 was the reason for optimizing costs and worsening the diet of animals, which led to a decrease in productivity in a number of farms.

Over the past year alone, the cost of feed base has increased by at least 20-50%, depending on the category of feed, Voronin noted. At the same time, the most significant growth is in high-energy, high-protein feeds.

In addition, currency-dependent cost items have increased by more than 20%, he continued, and mineral fertilizers have risen in price by 50% or more.

“All this could not but affect the profitability both in raw materials and in processing,” Voronin said, noting that at the moment the cost increase was about 17%, and compared to the pre-pandemic values ​​of the second half of 2019, about 30% . At the same time, due to the price increase, it was possible to win back no more than 10%.

According to Rosstat, milk production in Russia in 2020 in farms of all categories increased by 2.7% compared to the previous year, to 32.2 million tons. According to the latest data of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, as of November 15, the average milk yield per cow per day was 17.52 kilograms, 0.91 kilograms (5.5%) more than a year earlier.

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