Production and processing of milk. Forecast for the Republic of Belarus

The expert noted that over the past five or six years, a qualitative leap in the increase in the supply of raw milk in Belarus was observed only in 2020. That season, two factors coincided to increase milk production: a good own harvest (2019) and low world prices for concentrated fodder (second half of 2019 - first quarter of 2020). Unfortunately, the last two feed preparations, incl. the current one is significantly inferior to the autumn of 2019.

Livestock during this time is virtually unchanged. But now the dynamics is downward: the negative trend that began at the end of 2020 has continued into the current season. Maxim Fasteev expects -1% at the end of the year and in 2022 predicts a more significant livestock optimization.

Decline in livestock, poor harvest, high feed prices, an increase in the share of unprofitable agricultural organizations and the risks of reducing direct subsidies - all these factors point to a decrease in the volume of production and processing of raw milk in the republic.

“Only the high purchase price of raw milk can act as a counterbalance, which at the same time remains much lower than the prices of its neighbors: the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Lithuania, as well as hopes for next year’s harvest,” Maxim Fasteev wrote.

“Production and receipt of raw materials for processing by the population (yes, there is such milk in the Republic of Belarus ) is insignificant in the total mass. In recent years, the category has been declining rapidly.”

He added that the share of marketable milk in the total shaft of agricultural organizations is growing (90% in the current season), but at the same time it is noticeably lower than the Russian Federation or Ukraine, which indicates the use of large volumes for calf feeding.

“According to the results of three quarters, the volume of raw materials received for processing in the Republic of Belarus slightly exceeds the figures for 2020 (+0.6%), the difference at the end of the year should practically level out. PionerProduct's forecast for 2022 is 6.8 million tons, which is 1.2% lower than the preliminary result of the current season,” Maxim Fasteev concluded.

He also presented graphs, production and processing of raw milk, which use actual Belstat data and PioneerProduct forecasts: