USA: Cattle market overview for the 26th week of 2021

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The cost of Choice meat in the US market fell by $2.21 in a week, the price of Select beef decreased by $2.52. Choice/Select price leverage dropped to $21.03.

A recent Reuters report notes that Brazilian beef exports to the US rose sharply in the first five months of the year, with shipments in May alone up 186%. We thought it would be good to put these numbers in the broader context of US beef imports . According to preliminary data

from USDA-AMS, imports of fresh and frozen beef in the first six months of the year were 8.1% lower than the same period in 2020. Imports from Mexico were down 14,796 during this time, or 10.5%, offsetting an increase in imports of 14,537 Mt (+9.9%) from Canada. On the other hand, imports from other countries were 45,806 tons or 16.4% higher compared to last year. It is true that imports from Brazil are on the rise, but that is because we are comparing against a very low 2020 base. In the first six months of last year, beef imports from Brazil amounted to only 674 tons. USDA-registered imports this year totaled 13,511 tons. This increase in imports from Brazil was more than offset by a decrease in imports from other major suppliers such as Australia and New Zealand. Through June 26, US imports from Australia totaled 66,072 metric tons, down 48,200 tons from last year. Imports from New Zealand amounted to 87,995 tons, down 2,571 tons from a year ago. In addition, we are seeing a decline in imports from Central America.

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However, the decline in imports from Australia is the main reason for the decline in US beef imports. And despite the strong rise in imported beef prices, we expect Australian exports to remain tight. June Australian beef exports to the US (which will be reflected in US import data for July) were 12,178 tons, down 53% from a year ago. It was the lowest figure for June. Australian producers are fully restoring the herd of cattle, resulting in a slaughter of 20-25% below the norm. Also, strong demand from Asian markets limited supplies to the US. As a result, imported beef prices are now trading at a premium over domestic prices, putting further pressure on the market.

WEEKLY CUT CHOICE COST

AVERAGE WEEKLY LIVESTOCK PRICE

Sale of livestock, heads

Average weight

average price

as of 06/25/2021

as of 02.07.2021

Growth,%

as of 06/25/2021

as of 02.07.2021

Growth,%

as of 06/25/2021

as of 02.07.2021

Growth,%

Bulls (live weight)

15 501

25 255

62.9%

1454

1451

-0.2%

126

124

-1.4%

Heifers (live weight)

4640

13040

181.0%

1335

1292

-3.2%

124.39

123.35

-0.8%

Bulls (slaughter. weight)

7562

10969

45.1%

923

926

0.3%

197.86

198.14

0.1%

Heifers (slaughter weight)

1101

2385

116.6%

832

824

-1.0%

197.43

197.98

0.3%

WEEKLY WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE OF BULLS

BEEF PRODUCTION

as of 03.07.2021

A week earlier

A year ago

Growth per week,%

Growth per year,%

(approximately)

(actually)

Slaughter volume

623 000

661 000

581 000

-5.7%

7.2%

Live weight

1351

1 355

1 365

-0.3%

-1.0%

slaughter weight

818

819

831

-0.1%

-1.6%

Beef production (million pounds)

508.3

540.2

481.8

-5.9%

5.5%

CME, livestock futures

Week 25

Week 26

Growth per week,%

August

122.80

122.00

-0.7%

October

128.40

128.08

-0.2%

December

132.78

CME, fattening cattle futures

August

159.55

157.05

-1.6%

September

161.25

159.43

-1.1%

October

162.70

161.48

-0.7%

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USA: Cattle market overview for the 26th week of 2021

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