The next decade for global swine

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 provides an overview of global pork production and consumption over the next 10 years.

Pork production is projected to increase by 13% to 127 million tonnes by 2030, above the baseline lowered by ASF in 2018-2019. ASF outbreaks in Asia will continue to affect many countries at the beginning of the forecast period, with China most affected, Philippines and Vietnam. Due to ASF outbreaks, global pork production is expected to remain below peak levels until 2023, after which a steady increase in production is planned for the remainder of the forecast period. According to the Survey, pork production in China and Vietnam will begin to increase in 2021 and reach 2017 levels by 2023. Much of the increase in production in ASF-affected regions will come from a shift in production from household farms to commercial manufacturing enterprises. Pork production in the European Union is forecast to decline slightly amid environmental and social issues limiting its expansion. Russia - the fourth largest pork producer - has almost doubled production over the past 10 years in response to import bans and thanks to domestic policies to restructure and stimulate production. By 2030, a further 10% increase in production is expected.

Over the next 10 years, global pork consumption is projected to increase to 127 million tonnes, representing 33% of the total increase in meat consumption. In terms of per capita consumption, consumption is expected to increase slightly over the forecast period, with consumption declining in most developed countries. In the European Union, for example, a decrease is expected as changes in the composition of the population influence taste preferences in favor of poultry meat, which is not only cheaper but also considered a healthier food. In developing countries, where per capita pork consumption is half that of developed countries, growth is projected to be modest. Growth will continue in most Latin American countries, where per capita pork consumption has increased dramatically amid relatively favorable prices, which have made pork one of the most popular meat products, along with poultry meat, to meet the growing needs of the middle class. Several Asian countries with traditional pork consumption are also projected to increase their consumption after ASF exposure abates.