RSHB: in 2025, the average consumption of vegetable "meat" will reach 1 kg per year

By 2025, every Russian is likely to consume up to 1 kg of plant-based MEAT analogues annually. At the same time, the share of such products in the Russian market may be 1.5%, vegetable MILK substitutes - 5-8%, according to a study by the Russian Agricultural Bank (RSHB). According to analysts, this will be possible due to the increased availability of alternative types of food.

The development of the alternatives segment will be determined by several factors: the demand for food resources (the world's population is growing extremely rapidly), a responsible attitude towards nature and climate change. According to RSHB experts, the achievement of price parity between traditional meat and its alternatives will depend on the development of technologies for the production of vegetable proteins, as well as the growth in demand for products based on them. So far, the difference in the cost of a kilogram of natural meat and its vegetable counterpart in RUSSIA is 1.5-2.5 times, RSHB analysts say.

“It seems to me that the RSHB forecast is quite conservative and is based on the fact that there will be insufficient capacities for the production of plant-based alternatives to meat, or there will not be adequate demand from consumers <...>,” commented the managing partner of the Fuel for Growth fund, a market expert FoodNet National Technology Initiative Andrey Zyuzin. “I would increase the RSHB forecast for meat at least twice.”

According to him, adequate consumer demand for plant-based alternatives to meat in Russia has already been formed: according to the latest Nielsen data, over the past two years, consumption in terms of price has increased by 36%, and in volume - by 38%. This growth can be called significant, despite the low base, while plant-based alternatives still do not seriously compete with traditional meat.

The increase in the consumption of milk alternatives will be even more serious, Zyuzin said. This is due, firstly, to the fact that this segment in Russia is more popular among consumers, and secondly, a fairly wide range of products is presented on the market. “Pay attention to how many brands are entering our market, and this is not only the Russian Nemoloko. it seems to me that growth in this category should be even more aggressive - the percentage of growth [compared to the RSHB forecast] should be higher,” says Zyuzin.

During the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, the Efko group of companies announced the possibility of building a plant for deep processing of soybeans and sunflower seeds in the Samara region. “We believe that in the next 10-15 years, up to 10% of animal protein will be replaced by vegetable protein. And as soon as we understand that our hopes are coming true, we will immediately begin building the plant, ”said Yevgeny Lyashenko, general DIRECTOR of the group (quoted by Kommersant).

According to Mushegh Mamikonyan, an independent meat market expert, the RSHB forecast is quite realistic, but only for large cities, whose residents consume 80-90 kg of meat per year, which exceeds the European average. “It will even be useful for them sometimes to switch to plant foods. And families with low incomes are already having difficulty providing their protein needs, it is better for them to stay with the consumption of traditional meat, at least poultry, ”commented Mamikonyan. In his opinion, the market share that plant-based alternatives to meat and milk will take by 2025 will depend on the promotion of these products, target consumer groups. So, if alternatives are simply brought to the market without promotion, then they will not achieve the indicators that the RSHB predicts, the expert believes.

A market share of plant-based alternatives to meat of 1.5% in the case of Russia by 2025 is quite realistic, says Aleksey Ivanov, coordinator of the Eat Better project. He adds that this will be possible, first of all, due to the growing interest in the production of alternatives from large companies and the understanding that not only vegetarians and vegans are ready to consume such products. For example, Efko stated that by 2022 it plans to increase the production of vegetable-based meat substitutes to 40 thousand tons, which will already be about a quarter of these 1.5%. Greenwise and Welldone are also expanding their production.

“Of course, it is also important to support innovations in foodtech from the state and private investors. For example, according to a study by BCG and Blue Horizon, more than 20% of alternatives by 2035 will be products obtained by fermentation. At the same time, at the moment the infrastructure for this type of production is almost not developed, although initiatives and R&D already exist,” Ivanov said.

Andrey Khizhnyak, senior partner at Khizhnyak & Partners, also calls the forecast for the consumption of vegetable "meat" from the RSHB quite realistic. “You can look at developed countries. For example, recently in the United States, a chain of eateries that specialized in selling plant-based “meat” burgers BEYOND MEAT has achieved great success. So there is a chance to take a market share of 1.5%, but this is unlikely to greatly affect traditional meat processing,” he says. To promote such products, Khizhnyak believes, firstly, an affordable price is needed, and secondly, it is necessary to make its taste characteristics as close as possible to traditional products made from animal proteins. Ivanov shares a similar opinion, adding that alternatives should also be made more common on store shelves.

Andrey Khizhnyak, Senior Partner at Khizhnyak & Partners

The main danger of plant-based meat alternatives is their advertising through the denial of the consumption of traditional meat, when, for example, they begin to say that it is harmful, and the production is not environmentally friendly. This approach can reduce the consumption of traditional meat.

Cargill CEO David McLennan recently said that, according to the company's analytics, plant-based protein will take 10% of the protein product market within the next three to four years. Zyuzin says such forecasts clearly indicate that large foreign manufacturers have stopped ignoring plant-based alternatives. “The HEAD of America’s largest meat producer, Tyson Foods, which was Beyond Meat’s first investor, just announced that they are going to CHINA .and the United States with products of completely plant origin under the Raised & Rooted brand - that is, they will not sell meat, but vegetable nuggets, etc., - Zyuzin gives an example. - Earlier in one of his interviews, he said that Tyson Foods goes where their consumers go. This is not to say that plant-based protein will replace meat, but is a prime example of the consumer needing an alternative that has been denied for years.” According to Ivanov, Cargill's forecast is rather optimistic. For example, now the share of such products in the US market is only about 1% of the meat market, with such leaders in the category as Beyond Meat and IMPOSSIBLE FOODS. But if we talk about the horizon of 10 years, then this figure is more realistic.