Australia's cattle population to peak in 2023

Continued rainfall and favorable seasonal conditions experienced last year will ensure a reliable supply of both young and slaughter-weight cattle over the next two years, regardless of seasonal outcomes.

South Australia will continue to drive cattle growth, especially in New South Wales, with supply also expected to improve from southern Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria.

In the north, favorable seasonal conditions have been observed for much of Queensland in 2022, leading to the start of a herd recovery in the state and an increase in the number of females. Northern Australia's recovery is expected to accelerate this year.

In general, the number of cattle in 2023 will grow to the highest level since 2014, reaching 28.8 million heads, which is 1.1 million or 4.5% more than last year. According to MLA senior market intelligence analyst Ripley Atkinson, this growth is driven by several key factors.

“Record female retention for 15 consecutive months, combined with above-average marking performance, has led to an increase in the number of calves. This bodes well for a significant increase in both young stock and carcass supply in 2023,” said Mr Atkinson.

“Both of these figures suggest that the year saw the most significant retention on record. This underlies the positive growth in numbers projected over the next three years.”

By 2025, the country's herd is expected to reach its highest level since the 1970s at 29.6 million heads, after which it will begin to decline steadily. This continued growth is driven by strong female reproductive performance, genetic improvements throughout the herd, and sound farm management.

Input prices and production costs will be major factors influencing the sector's ability to remain productive and efficient.

In addition, the availability of skilled and unskilled workers to manage the increased number of cattle in 2023 will be a major issue affecting red meat production. The ability of the processing sector to process livestock will determine the level of production and therefore the volume of exports in 2023.

“If labor problems are not addressed in the processing sector, slaughter is projected to reach 6 million heads,” Mr. Atkinson said. - "Based on the actual number of cattle this year, forecasts indicate an increase in the number to 6.625 million heads."

2023 will be a year of transition for the livestock industry, Atkinson said.

“Positive results across the entire supply chain seem likely as exceptional working conditions on the farm continue. The overall outlook for Australia's meat industry both domestically and internationally is optimistic and positive, although it continues to supply high quality beef in large volumes, this is expected to be a major feature in 2023."