World pork production will grow by 17% in ten years

 The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 outlines market trends and medium-term forecasts for global meat markets.

Global pork consumption is projected to increase to 129 million tonnes over the next ten years, accounting for a third of the total increase in meat consumption. However, on a per capita basis, global consumption is expected to stagnate over the forecast period. Pork will remain the most consumed meat in the European Union for the next decade, although it will remain stable on a per capita basis as consumers make dietary changes to poultry as a cheaper source of protein. In most Latin American countries, favorable prices have made pork and poultry meats of choice to meet rising middle-class demand. Several Asian countries that traditionally consume pork, such as Korea and Vietnam, are predicted to

Meat consumption per capita

Note. Per capita consumption is expressed in retail weight. Source: OECD/FAO (2022), OECD-FAO Agricultural Forecast, OECD Agricultural Statistics 

Pork production is projected to grow by 17% by 2031 from a baseline lowered by ASF in 2019-2021 and will benefit from increased sector specialization and biosecurity measures. The ASF outbreak in Asia, which began in late 2018, will continue to affect many countries in the early years of the forecast period, with China , the Philippines and Viet Nam being the most affected. ASF outbreaks are projected to continue to keep global pork production below previous peak levels until 2022, after which it is expected to rise steadily until 2031

China's pork production is expected to continue to grow and reach pre-ASF levels by 2023 (2017). Much of the increase in pork production in ASF-affected regions will be associated with a shift from mostly small-scale household farms to large-scale farms and large-scale commercial enterprises. Vietnam, which has been suffering from reduced pork production due to ASF since 2019, is projected to become the sixth largest pork producer just after Brazil and Russia. Vietnamese production is projected to recover to 2019 levels by 2023 and continue to rise during the forecast period.

Pork production in the European Union is forecast to decline as concerns over environmental protection and animal welfare are expected to cap domestic demand, and China's cuts in imports also hurt trade prospects. Production in Brazil and the US is also expected to fall at the start of the forecast due to an expected decline in import demand from China and high feed costs. On the other hand, their production will remain high given their strong competitive position in global markets.