"On the Razor's Edge." Who was elected president of Poland, and what shocked the Tusk camp?

Photo: Paweł Głogowski, euronews.com The second round of the presidential election took place in Poland on June 1. The final showdown pitted representatives of two opposing political camps – Rafał Trzaskowski (Civic Coalition) and Karol Nawrocki (Law and Justice). In the first round, which took place on May 18, both politicians received a nearly equal number of votes – a difference of less than 1%. 

•   
•   

The first exit polls after yesterday's vote showed Trzaskowski leading by a few tenths of a percentage point. However, the situation then began to change. Later polls placed Nawrocki in first place. The PiS candidate's lead was also confirmed by data from the National Electoral Commission (NIK). Meanwhile, both candidates have already declared victory. Consequently, experts in Poland are expressing concern that the election results could be contested, which would risk a political crisis and mass protests. Such a development would be a worst-case scenario for the country. Meanwhile, the Electoral Commission has already made it clear that there will be no recount without clear grounds.

It's worth recalling that the current presidential campaign in Poland was fought amid intense confrontation between opposing camps, which only exacerbated the polarization of society. Each side pinned its political future on victory in the election. 
Many experts noted that Trzaskowski's victory would give his party comrade, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the opportunity to consolidate both the premiership and presidential powers. Trzaskowski himself was largely perceived not as a distinct political figure, but as Tusk's protégé. At the same time, the Law and Justice (PiS) party, with Nawrocki's help, hoped to retain presidential power and counter Tusk's political crackdown on the opposition.  BelTA reports 

on how people voted in Poland and abroad, why the vote count resembled the American race, whether the country is now facing a political crisis , and why Tusk's plans collapsed like a house of cards.

There will be no recount. What do the numbers indicate? 
After the series of squabbles and scandals that accompanied the current election campaign in Poland, one might have expected the tallying of the results to be a rollercoaster ride. And, by and large, that's exactly what happened.

After the polls closed, Ipsos exit poll data was published for TVP, TVN24, and Polsat News. The results were as follows: Nawrocki received 49.7% of the vote, Trzaskowski 50.3%.

However, closer to midnight, Ipsos released the results of a late exit poll. And then the picture changed: Nawrocki took the lead with 50.7%, while Trzaskowski received 49.3%.

The results of a second late Ipsos poll strengthened Nawrocki's position by tenths of a percentage point. He received 51%, while Trzaskowski received 49%. Voter turnout was 71.7%.

In all cases, the difference was within the margin of statistical error, so it was premature to declare a leader. 
Accurate data only appeared in the morning. After counting 100% of the votes, the National Electoral Commission (NEC) confirmed Nawrocki's victory, with 50.89%. Trzaskowski has 49.11%.

Data on the distribution of votes at polling stations abroad has also been released. Among Poles voting abroad, Trzaskowski is the most popular, garnering 63.49% of the vote. Nawrocki received 36.51% of the vote. Meanwhile, in the United States and CANADA, where there are significant Polish diasporas, Nawrocki has emerged as the leader. It is noteworthy that Western media have described the current vote in Poland as a test of sorts for Polish society – a choice between a pro-European course and Donald Trump-style nationalism.

Polish radio RMF FM reports the results of the vote in Belarus. According to it, 52.78% of voters cast their ballots for Trzaskowski.

Meanwhile, the HEAD of the National Electoral Commission, Sylwester Marciniak, has already stated that there will be no recount of votes in Poland without clear grounds. He explained that for a recount to be carried out, protests against the election results must be filed. A COURT must then rule on the recount. "At the moment, I don't see such a threat," he said, noting that voters and committees have 14 days after the election results are announced to file protests.
Contestants drop out, voters remain. Has the far right decided the winner? 
Thirteen candidates participated in the first round of the Polish presidential election. Since Nawrocki and Trzaskowski received a nearly equal number of votes in the first round, their number one task was to win over the voters of the eliminated candidates. And here, the primary focus was on the voters of Sławomir Mentzen of the far-right Confederation, who received 14.81% of the vote in the first round, securing him third place.

Recognizing his importance, Mentzen even held a kind of online interview for Nawrocki and Trzaskowski, inviting them to his YouTube channel. Ultimately, before the second round, he voiced his support for Nawrocki. And, apparently, it worked. According to the Ipsos exit poll, approximately 88.1% of Mentzen voters cast their ballots for the PiS candidate in yesterday's vote.  
Nawrocki was also the overwhelming majority among voters of another far-right politician, Grzegorz Braun, who finished fourth in the first round with 6.34%. According to Polish radio RMF FM, in the second round, 92.5% of Braun's voters voted for Nawrocki, while 7.5% voted for Rafał Trzaskowski.

The electorate of Sejm Speaker Szymon Holownia, who also participated in the first round, overwhelmingly supported Trzaskowski (86.2%). Trzaskowski also received strong support from voters of Adrian Zandberg of the left-wing Together party (83.8%) and Magdalena Biejat of the New Left party (90.2%). 

However, Holownia, Zandberg, and Beyat collectively scored less than Mentzen in the first round. Therefore, it can be assumed that the electorate of the far-right candidates determined the winner of this election.

Everyone has their own victory. How are the candidates and their supporters reacting? 
While the electoral commissions were counting the votes, each candidate managed to declare themselves the winner.

"We have won!" proclaimed Trzaskowski, addressing supporters in the Polish capital. "This is a special moment in the history of Poland. I am confident that this will allow us all to rush forward like a torpedo and focus first and foremost on the future."

But if anything exploded like a torpedo, it was the mood at Nawrocki's headquarters after the announcement of the second exit poll results. "Shouts of joy can be heard from the VIP room at PiS headquarters after the recent late poll," reported Polish journalist Joanna Miziolek.

Nawrocki himself declared that he would be declared the winner after the vote count was complete and promised to "unite the patriotic camp in Poland." "Today we will win. We will win and save Poland so that Donald Tusk does not establish a monopoly on his power , an evil power that does not care about public finances, that takes away our great dreams and takes away our aspirations. We must win tonight, and we know we will," Nawrocki said.

Former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was also confident of the victory of the PiS-backed candidate. "Karol Nawrocki has already won this election, considering the entire machine of lies launched against him," he told reporters. "Donald Tusk has created a huge atmosphere of fear with the support of TVN and public television. Did every person honestly and truthfully say who they voted for in the exit poll?" PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński also accused Tusk's government

of lying and using the state apparatus to promote a pro-government candidate in the presidential elections . "A huge media and financial advantage, external support , and a mountain of lies, the worst, most disgusting, and repulsive. It seemed like nothing could be done in this situation. But it became possible... We won," said Kaczyński. Incumbent President Andrzej Duda also posted congratulatory words on social media. "Thank you! For participating in the presidential election. For your turnout. For fulfilling your civic duty. For taking responsibility for Poland," the Polish leader wrote. He also congratulated Nawrocki on his victory. Meanwhile, according to Polish media, Tusk's camp is in shock. "Politicians in the ruling camp expect Prime Minister Donald Tusk to attempt a vote of confidence in his government this week. They doubt the idea of ​​early elections, but acknowledge that the coalition's plans have just collapsed like a house of cards... The results obtained overnight came as a shock. In recent weeks, some ministers have been listing projects that could be implemented with the participation of a president representing the ruling camp."- writes the Polish portal Onet, close to the Tusk government.





The government is convinced that Nawrocki will not be a second Duda, but Duda cubed. Not a single major project of the ruling coalition will receive support. Thus, Tusk's coalition will be constrained in its actions until the next parliamentary elections, scheduled for autumn 2027. "This will be two and a half years of stagnation, which this camp may not survive," the publication states.

Bribery, a drunken commission member, and a false application. What is known about the violations? 
According to the National Electoral Commission, a total of approximately 275 violations were recorded during the second round of elections – approximately the same number as in the first round. These include 17 criminal offenses related to voter bribery, attempts to disrupt the elections, and damage to property.

According to the head of the NEC, Marciniak, observers recorded instances of ballots being taken outside polling stations. Cases of illegal transfer of personal data are also reported.

Emergencies were not avoided. At one polling station, a 75-year-old man collapsed while standing in line to vote. He later died. There was also a recorded incident of one of the election commission members being in a state ofALCOHOL intoxication . The man was suspended from his post.

A special app developed to prevent duplicate voting also caused a stir. This app was recommended to some commission members by people associated with the Movement for Electoral Control, and its use was even advocated by former Polish Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro.

The possibility of the app malfunctioning was reported even before the elections. The app is not officially registered or recognized by the Polish authorities. However, it is still actively used amid concerns about election fraud. This leads to situations such as yesterday at a polling station in Szczecin. A voter was denied the right to cast a vote because the app used by the election commission members already listed him as having voted. As a result, a visit to the polling station resulted in a police call.

Polish journalist Katarzyna Sadło also wrote about a similar situation on the social media site X. She entered her information into the app, and it turned out her name was on the list of voters. "If I stumble upon a committee using this app, the poor committee member who trusted the former justice minister will call the police," Sadlo said.

"The stakes are huge, and the difference is small." What conclusions do experts draw? 
"The scale of anti-government sentiment revealed in these elections exceeded all expectations... I am confident that the coming weeks could be very interesting for both the right and the ruling camp," comments Polish political scientist Rafal Chwedoruk.

He believes it is too early to bury the political duopoly in Poland, where power is traditionally shared between PiS and the Civic Coalition. Still, according to the expert, Sławomir Mentzen of the far-right Confederation could feel like the winner of the current elections. He was eliminated after the first round of voting, finishing third. However, politically, Mentzen achieved everything he could. For two weeks, he was the talk of the town in Poland. Both Nawrocki and Trzaskowski vied for his favor, hoping to attract the far-right electorate. "Mentzen certainly made a great contribution to the future of his party by avoiding a simple alliance with PiS," Chwedoruk noted.

Polish professor Przemysław Sadura, in a commentary for the publication Onet, stated that the distribution of votes in the elections is a result of how voters evaluate the government's actions. "It wasn't the cities that let the politicians down; it was the politicians who let the voters down. Regardless of how this evening ends, the governing coalition should learn from it... It's a result of how voters evaluated the government's actions," the professor believes.
According to the expert, the very fact that the elections are being held "on a razor's edge"says a lot about the attitude of voters towards the current government.

Do Rzeczy editor-in-chief Pawel Lisicki noted that the difference in votes between the two candidates is minimal. Against this backdrop, the losing side could question the election results, which could ultimately lead to mass protests.

"The stakes are enormous, and the difference is small. This naturally prompts both sides to point out shortcomings and doubts. The Supreme Court, or more precisely its Chamber of Public Affairs and Extraordinary Control, will also play a more important role. Another problem is that this chamber of the Supreme Court is not recognized by the current government. Therefore, it could happen – although this is only a hypothesis – that there will be mass protests," Lisicki said.  
Polish historian and political scientist Antoni Dudek stated that the current presidential election could end in a contested outcome. He also noted that when the president's mandate is called into question, this is the worst-case scenario for the country.

"The worst-case scenario is coming true: a narrow victory with a record number of votes cast. We can only hope that the result announced by the National Electoral Commission will be recognized by both sides. The worst-case scenario is a president whose mandate is called into question. Since 1990, presidential elections have been fraught with intense emotion. Candidates change, but one thing remains constant: we emerge from each subsequent election more and more divided," the historian noted.

Vita Khanataeva, photoREUTERS , AP, 
BELTA.