How the French government found itself on the brink of resignation again

On December 2, the French National Assembly was supposed to approve the social spending budget for 2025. However, due to disagreements between the cabinet and the far-right National Rally (RN) party over various provisions of the bill, Prime Minister Michel Barnier decided to push it through using Article 49.3 of the Constitution, bypassing a vote in the lower house of parliament. In response, the RN and left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) factions, which together hold more than half of the seats, promised to call a vote of no confidence in the government in the near future. France is once again facing the prospect of being left without a permanent government.

"You are now responsible for the future of the country. The same responsibility that I am taking on myself," Barnier told MPs when announcing his decision.

The Barnier government , formed in the second half of September, is facing the threat of a vote of no confidence for the second time. The NFP bloc was initially critical of Barnier's cabinet: the left considered it unfair that Emmanuel Macron entrusted the formation of the government to a Republican, ignoring the NFP's victory in the elections. In early October, deputies from the left bloc submitted a draft motion of no confidence in Barnier to the lower house, but they were not supported by the far right at the time, and thanks to the position of Marine Le Pen's faction, on October 8 the National Assembly voted against the motion of no confidence in the government.

France has been in a protracted political crisis since President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly (lower house of parliament) on June 9 and called early elections. The decision was prompted by the RN's victory in the European Parliament elections in June.

The elections, held in two rounds (June 30 and July 7), resulted in a defeat for Macron's allies, with the New Popular Front winning. Although Le Pen's party came in third in both rounds, it significantly expanded its presence in parliament, receiving 143 seats out of 577. The centrist coalition of the president's allies, Together!, received 166 mandates, and the NFP received 184. Thus, no force managed to gain a majority, and the country's parliament was divided into three.

The new government took almost three months to form. Macron appointed 73-year-old right-wing Republican Michel Barnier as prime minister only on September 5, after a series of consultations with key political forces in the republic. Journalists described the new government as “the most right-wing in 12 years”: it mainly included Republicans, representatives of Macron’s centrist bloc and their allies.

On December 2, the leader of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, said on the radio station RTL that the RN faction would vote for the government's resignation if the prime minister did not increase social spending by Monday evening. The RN leader noted that his party had proposed "sensible measures," but that their proposals had not been taken into account, and therefore "the budget bill presented by the government will weaken the purchasing power of the French."

Barnier's government presented its 2025 budget plan in October. In order to reduce the budget deficit by 2% of GDP, the cabinet cut spending by €40 billion compared to last year and proposed raising taxes on large corporations and wealthy French individuals, which should bring in another €20 billion. The government promised that the tax measures would not hit the poor. However, Barnier's proposed austerity measures could potentially affect areas that are very sensitive for all segments of the population - in particular, the government proposed cutting HEALTH care spending by €3.8 billion and postponing the inflation indexation of pensions.

France was forced to resort to an emergency budget savings plan, including because in June the European Commission launched a procedure for initiating fines against France and six other EU countries , including Italy and Belgium, due to their excessive budget deficits (in France, the budget deficit, according to estimates by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, was approaching 6.1% of GDP, and the national debt had grown to 110% of GDP). According to EU fiscal rules, the imbalance of the national budget should not exceed 3% of GDP, and the national debt should not exceed 60%. Barnier promised to reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP.

The HEAD of the RN parliamentary group, Marine Le Pen, told AFP on December 1 that the Barnier government had effectively “put an end to the discussions” on the budget and that her party was therefore ready to vote for a vote of no confidence in the cabinet. Finance Minister Antoine Armand had said in an interview with BLOOMBERG Television the day before that the French government would not accept the far-right’s ultimatum. “We will not give in to blackmail,” he promised. Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin told Le Parisien over the weekend that the budget amendments proposed by parliament would already cost almost €10 billion and that the government would therefore not make any further concessions. Barnier warned that if the bill is not approved by parliament, he could invoke Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the government to approve the budget without resorting to a vote in the National Assembly.

As Bloomberg notes, Barnier made concessions to RN, abandoning the idea of ​​raising taxes on electricity. Among the nationalists' other demands is the cancellation of plans to reduce funding for medicines for citizens and to raise the tax on gasoline. In addition, RN insists on reducing France's contributions to the EU budget. "By increasing the cost of labor, postponing the reduction of production taxes in favor of small and medium-sized businesses, reducing the purchasing power of the French, this government is condemning the country to economic stagnation or even to falling out of the economy," wrote X Bardella on social media, noting that RN cannot accept this.

As it became known on December 2, Barnier ultimately decided not to reduce the amount of funds allocated for reimbursement of expenses for medicines. However, representatives of the far right told Le Monde that this concession is not enough and they insist on refusing to de-index pension payments taking into account inflation. As a result, Barnier preferred to use Article 49.3 of the Constitution.

According to Le Monde, the vote of no confidence could be formally taken on December 4, and if the vote is positive, it would be the second such case since 1962, when the government of Georges Pompidou was dismissed.

And Macron, according to the Constitution of the Fifth Republic, can only call new early parliamentary elections a year after the last elections, next July. That is, the country will again be governed by a caretaker government. By the way, former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, amid the risk of the collapse of the Barnier cabinet, criticized the proposal for a vote of no confidence, calling it an irresponsible act and "petty poison" that is destroying the country.

"We call on the opposition responsibly not to succumb to the destructive temptation, to abandon this dangerous idea and not to vote for the resignation of the government. We will never side with those who seek to weaken our country. As before, we will vote for the social security budget and for the general budget. We will support the government because it is in the interests of France, despite our disputes, differences and disagreements," he wrote on the social network X.

Meanwhile, the French economy is in serious trouble. Last week, for the first time in history, its cost of borrowing was almost equal to the level that Greece is forced to pay due to the consequences of the debt crisis - 0.02 percentage points. Investors fear that the collapse of the government in France will mean the end of any efforts to reduce the public debt, warns The Guardian. The gap between rates on 10-year government bonds in France and Germany widened to 0.9 percentage points, which is the largest in 12 years.

However, France has so far managed to avoid a credit rating downgrade by the international agency S&P. “Despite the ongoing political uncertainty, France is expected to comply – with a delay – with the parameters of the EU fiscal policy and will gradually be able to consolidate public finances,” the agency’s analysts noted.

As REUTERS predicts , after a vote of no confidence, the most viable solution for the now caretaker government would be to pass emergency legislation. However, in this case, the cabinet would only be able to extend the spending caps and tax rules for the current year, and Barnier's proposed austerity measures would be a thing of the past.

According to a recent study by Elabe, 63% of French people surveyed said they would support Macron's resignation if Barnier's government collapses. The country's presidential elections are scheduled for 2027.