Economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences called the risks for the labor market due to sanctions

In the context of sanctions, social risks are exacerbated - from the spread of shadow employment and the outflow of personnel to discrimination against workers and an increase in crime.Experts from the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences came to such conclusions

The sanctions crisis carries risks for the development of human capital in RUSSIA, and official unemployment is not the most dangerous of them. New challenges for the labor market and the social sphere were discussed by experts from the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences at a round table of the Center for Employment Policy and Social and Labor Relations and the Center for the Economic Theory of the Social Sector, held on April 26. The materials of the speeches were studied by RBC.

Risks for the labor market

The Russian labor model is designed in such a way that in a crisis, official unemployment does not necessarily increase critically: employers try to avoid layoffs, instead cutting wages. This opinion was voiced by the HEAD of the Center for Employment Policy and Social and Labor Relations of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Irina Soboleva. The collapse of the labor market, even with a low unemployment rate, will be expressed in the fact that there will be fewer opening vacancies in most areas. Great difficulties with employment will be experienced by young people entering the labor market for the first time, the expert predicts.

The growth of informal employment can be facilitated by the fact that the authorities, as an indulgence for business, have introduced a moratorium on inspections until the end of 2022: they are not carried out by Rostrud, which reveals violations of labor laws. An injured worker can still file a complaint against their employer, but with job cuts, employees will be forced to hold on tighter to the workplace, and employer abuse may increase. Stella Dolmatova, a senior researcher at the IE RAS, saw such a risk. About the risks of hidden unemployment, when employees are transferred to part-time jobs and cut incomes, an expert on regional economics, a professor at the Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University, warned. Lomonosov Natalya Zubarevich, RBC wrote.

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Soboleva also notes another change in the structure of demand for labor - an increased workload of employees of import-substituting enterprises and enterprises working on defense orders, with an increase in latent unemployment and downtime at other enterprises. With such a reshaping of the labor market, the traditional model of employers' behavior of "keep staff to the last" will slow down structural adjustment, she believes.

“Additional financial support measures tied to maintaining employment should be used with caution. This can become an anti-stimulus for the necessary structural adjustment,” Soboleva warns.

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The government has taken a number of measures to support employment in the face of sanctions pressure. Among them is the 3:0 payroll preferential loan program, under which the borrower must retain at least 90% of jobs during the period of the loan agreement. A similar measure was applied during the coronacrisis. Until the end of 2022, employees of companies that have suspended operations can be temporarily transferred to another employer without interrupting the main employment contract.

According to Rosstat, at the end of March, unemployment in Russia remained at 4.1%, unchanged from February.

Staff outflow

Despite the fact that during the pandemic there was an outflow from Russia of labor migrants who had previously arrived from the CIS countries, experts have not yet recorded a shortage of labor. According to Aleksey Sedlov, a leading researcher at the IE RAS, the shortage of migrants of about 1.5 million people was repaid, including through the use of black labor relations schemes.

According to Sedlov, excessive labor migration to Russia is generated by two factors - poverty in the countries of Central Asia and low labor costs of migrants for business. Among the background conditions for uncontrolled cheap labor migration is the liberal migration policy of the state, as well as the weakness of trade unions that are unable to defend the right of Russian citizens to priority in employment, decent pay and working conditions, he believes.

Khusnullin explained the cessation of the outflow of migrants by the strengthening of the ruble Politics

However, Russia's economic problems will also affect migrants, Elena Kubishin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, warns. Inflationary depreciation of income and difficulties with the transfer of earned money to their native countries, in her opinion, will inevitably cause an outflow of guest workers. In addition, the difficult situation in Russia under sanctions may stimulate the development of the economies of neighboring states that are labor donors for Russia. With the growth of national economies, jobs and wages within these countries will grow, which means that some of the local residents will not have to look for work abroad.

To what extent the needs of enterprises in the labor force will be satisfied by Russian workers depends on two factors, Kubishin believes. The first is the possibility of retraining those who have lost their jobs. The second factor is the drop in incomes and the standard of living of that part of the able-bodied population that was not engaged in labor activity, but was not officially unemployed either. Such citizens are classified as "economically inactive population" (students, housewives, pensioners, etc.).

The potential labor force, a part of the economically inactive population that expresses a desire to have a job, but cannot quickly start it and / or does not actively search for a job, can partially compensate for the shortage of personnel, Marina Baskakova, a leading researcher at the Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, adds. According to her estimate, in 2020, the potential labor force included 1.35 million able-bodied population in Russia.

On the other hand, after the start of the special operation in Ukraine, Russian citizens began to emigrate from Russia. The loss of "elite human capital", in the words of Soboleva, is more dangerous than the growth of unemployment within the country. Most of the personnel flow away from areas in which there is a strong connection with the international community, primarily in the IT industry. According to Sedlov, out of 1 million employed in this area, about 7% left for developed countries.

Rising crime

The decrease in the level and quality of life of the population, generated by the crisis, will inevitably affect, although not immediately, the quality of all human potential, Kubyshyn is convinced. The needs of people and the possibility of satisfying them will be limited due to rising prices, reduced incomes and their inflationary depreciation.

The whole complex of problems that have arisen due to sanctions could also lead to an increase in illegal activities, she worries. Among the crimes that may become more frequent, she calls telephone and Internet fraud, and not citizens, but computer systems of state bodies and large business structures, can become victims more often. In addition, the expert does not exclude the growth of car theft, including for the market of spare parts that are no longer supplied to Russia.

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Solutions

The solution to the problems that have arisen because of the sanctions will not be instantaneous and may take decades, sums up Kubishin. At the same time, she does not lose optimism: any crisis is also an opportunity for growth. According to the expert, the most important task for Russia today is to diversify the economy and develop import-substituting technologies and industries, while providing this process with adequate human capital.

Therefore, it is especially important from a strategic point of view to expand the opportunities for additional education and professional retraining, taking into account the needs of employers, Soboleva suggests. Russia lags more than half behind the United States and the Scandinavian countries in terms of coverage of workers with vocational training programs provided by employers, she says, adding that such programs should be sponsored by the state. The problem of lack of incentives for the development of human capital through retraining was previously pointed out by Vladimir Gimpelson, DIRECTOR of the Center for Labor Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, wrote RBC.

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