Maxum Foods about the prospects for exiting quarantine in the April review of the dairy market

Countries have very different levels of covid-19 vaccinations, making it difficult to predict the exit from lockdowns.

However, according to Dustin Boughton, DIRECTOR of purchasing at Maxum Foods, the US and UK are actively pursuing programs that will hopefully lead to a robust reopening of the foodservice trade in the coming months.

Boughton believes that Europe has lost control of the spread of the infection, and the slow pace of vaccination has led to extended but uneven restrictions on movement. Meanwhile, severe logistical delays have slowed trade from major US and EU ports.

The weather is also weighing in on the prospect of reopening as the El Niña effect wanes after a cool, wet summer, creating great seasonal conditions in southern Australia. Boughton notes that cold weather in the EU is causing a slow onset of spring, while drought is spreading in the western US. Changeable late-season weather conditions in New Zealand have resulted in higher late-season MILK yields, but this could change quickly.

High prices in Oceania, caused by CHINA 's dominance in the GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE, its purchases of milk pulp and butter, will ease slightly, Boughton said. He added that in other countries, demand for MMP and fats remains patchy and price sensitive, while MMP is more affordable with a range of supply prices.

The main indicators of trade in raw dairy products are supported by a strong EU-27 market with its slow growth in milk production, which leads to limited supplies of butter and SMP.

"A better end-of-season situation in New Zealand and Australia will not rebalance the global market in the short term, but could present opportunities while logistics in the Northern Hemisphere remain challenging."

According to Bowton, the supply of milk in the United States will gradually decline as the profitability of farms decreases. Meanwhile, the opening of catering establishments will increase the demand for cheese and reduce the supply of butterfat as cream consumption rises. US cheddar prices should rise as large stocks are reduced.

PioneerProduct based on dairyreporter.com