Japan: pork production and trade forecast for 2024

The number of pigs slaughtered in 2024 is expected to reach 16.85 million, up slightly from 16.74 million in 2023. Much of the increase will come from higher initial stocks resulting from slaughter delays during the extremely hot summer of 2023. Strong demand for pork will support carcass prices and encourage pig farmers to maintain production levels. Pig production should increase in 2024 due to the expected increase in the sow population from 2023.

Ending stocks in 2024 will be unchanged from the previous year, assuming mild climate conditions and no disease outbreaks. Pork production was flat in 2023 but saw sharp fluctuations in the second half of the year. High temperatures in the summer reduced appetite and the pigs took longer to gain weight. The resulting slaughter delay led to a slight shortage, and pork carcass prices rose sharply in August and September. After this, mild winter weather allowed for rapid weight gain and pig slaughter rates quickly recovered.

Classical swine fever (CSF) and porcine epidemic diarrhea were reported during the year, but the impact on production was limited. In 2023, four reported cases of CSF resulted in a total cull of 13,400 pigs. The two cases occurred in Saga Prefecture on the island of Kyushu, home to 31% of Japan's total pig population. Prefectural governments and local pig farmers have agreed to use the CSF vaccine on healthy pigs raised on the island of Kyushu to prevent further outbreaks in the largest pork-producing region.

Despite the dampening impact of inflation on consumers, Japanese pork consumption in 2024 is projected to remain stable from 2023, driven by strong demand in the retail trade as well as the foodservice sector, which continues to benefit from a post-COVID surge in tourism . Pork has become the main animal protein in the Japanese diet, especially in home cooking. it is relatively price inelastic and therefore less susceptible to inflation, but consumers are increasingly choosing cheaper cuts.

Japan's pork imports are projected to increase by just 1% in 2024 to plug the domestic supply gap. Continued uncertainty in exchange rates and overseas supply chains is likely to force traders to limit imports to the level needed to meet current demand. Higher shipping costs led to a 6% decline in Japan's pork imports in 2023. The weak yen against the DOLLAR and euro was a factor, but also international tensions in the Red Sea further increased the cost of imports as shipping routes through the region became unavailable. Ships from Europe to Japan had to change routes around the Red Sea, affecting about 20% of pork imports, mainly frozen pork and pork products. Additionally, Japan continued to suspend imports from some European countries, such as Germany and Italy , due to outbreaks of African swine fever ( ASF ). To stabilize supplies, importers have reduced inventories by 7% from 2022.