China slaughtered 183 million pigs in the first half of the year, driving down prices

Falling prices for live pigs, MEAT and piglets

Live pig prices   fell for six consecutive weeks, reaching 14.35 yuan/kg in mid-August, down 31.4% from a year earlier. Pork prices also fell to 24.93 yuan/kg in the third week of August, down 22% from a year earlier.

In the case of piglets, the decline was even more prolonged: fifteen consecutive weeks of decline until the price reached 33.25 yuan/kg, a 25.4% year-on-year decline.

Adjusted but positive profitability

Despite falling prices, pig farming remains profitable thanks to lower feed costs. Corn and soybean meal prices remain at historically low levels, allowing for cost reductions. According to analyst Zhu Zengyong of the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Science, pig farming has remained profitable for 15 consecutive months, although profitability has declined, with average farm profits falling below 100 yuan in July.

Market outlook

Pork consumption remains weak during the hot season, although a recovery is expected in September and a significant increase in the south of the country with the jerky season in late November.

In the short term, the National Development and Reform Commission announced a new round of stockpiling domestic frozen pork to remove the product from the market and stabilize prices.

Internationally, CHINA imported 626,000 tonnes of pork between January and July, up 4.1% from a year earlier, although imports fell 0.6% in July.

Analysts expect prices to show slight seasonal increases and limited fluctuations, with profitability remaining secure but becoming increasingly tight.