Pork shortage predicted in Thai market

Thailand is facing a similar scenario seen in Vietnam over the past couple of years. Since May, the country has seen multiple outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) on commercial farms, and mass eradication of pigs is underway.

“The price of live pigs in Thailand has reached US $2.5/ kg, up from US$1.8/kg two months ago. This indicates that a shortage of pork is expected in the coming months. The main reason for this price is the mass culling of sows and commercial pigs to prevent the spread of African swine fever (ASF). We previously estimated that 30% of sows were destroyed or sent to neighboring countries, especially Myanmar. But today sow loss can be as high as 50% or more,” said Paul Anderson, General Manager South East Asia - Global Sales Manager at GENESUS Inc.

However, it will take months to replenish the farms as stocks dwindle and imports are the only solution for the Thai pig industry. Healthy gilts are hard to find in Thailand because most breeders also suffer from ASF, so importing them will be the solution. But even when pigs are available, it is very difficult to get permission to move them to farms, as the movement of gilts and pigs is tightly controlled to avoid the spread of the disease.

"The situation in Thailand now is similar to what it was in Vietnam a year ago. The impact of ASF in Vietnam last year caused a shortage of pigs and an increase in the price of pigs in the country. Vietnam solved this problem by allowing the import of gilts and commercial pigs from Thailand. This is a solution, which Thailand cannot afford. That is why the effect of ASF in Thailand will be much more severe than what Vietnam has experienced before,” added Mr. Anderson.

In his opinion, it will take at least a couple of years before the offspring of young gilts reach market weight, until then a shortage of pigs and pork in the country will be inevitable.