Global stocks of pigs will increase by 15% in 2021

ASF is still a problem for Asian producers as China lost almost 8% of its pig stocks in the first quarter.

The global pig population was estimated at 753 million head at the beginning of 2021, up 15% from 2020 levels, but still much less than the 781 million head reported in 2018, shortly before the ASF outbreak in China. 

A recent Reuters report indicated that northern China has lost about 20% of its breeding stock by 2021 due to ASF, implying a 7-8% reduction in China 's total breeding stock in the first quarter of 2021. 

The ASF crisis in Asia will remain a hot topic for the global swine industry as new strains of the virus have been discovered in China. Although Chinese production in 2021 is still expected to be 25% below pre-ASF levels, it is nonetheless expected to rise 11% from last year's production volumes. Pig stocks have grown rapidly in 2020, but current ASF problems associated with a new strain of the virus will continue to limit production. The EU, US , Canada and Brazil are likely to remain key pork suppliers to China during 2021.

Global pork production is projected to grow by 5% in 2021 to reach 101.5 Mt (USDA) as some of Asia's major pork producers are expected to continue to recover from the impact of ASF.

On the other hand, the ASF crisis in China could benefit beef and lamb producers as consumption trends are expected to change in the coming years. Pork consumption in the Asian country reached its peak in 2014 - 41.7 kg per person, but its growth is not expected in the next five years. According to GIRA experts, per capita pork consumption in China will reach almost 34 kg by 2025. Last year it was 23.2 kg per person.