Global beef markets brace for changing trading conditions

According to RaboResearch's latest quarterly beef report, global cattle markets are expected to show growth in the first half of 2025. Based on current supply and demand conditions, RaboResearch expects trade flows to remain stable. However, if the US and its major trading partners, such as Europe and CHINA , engage in a trade war, this could change.

Cattle prices in Europe showed exceptionally strong growth in the first quarter as domestic supply tightened and demand remained strong.

"The rise in European prices is comparable to the high North American cattle prices, which continue to rise slowly," said Angus Gidley-Baird, senior animal protein analyst at RaboResearch. "In both Europe and the United States, diseases and pests are impacting livestock supplies. In Europe, and now in the United Kingdom, bluetongue continues to affect cattle. Meanwhile, the presence of MEATThe spread of the New World fly in Mexico has forced U.S. authorities to close the border to Mexican livestock imports, and the risk of potential infestation in the United States is increasing."

Current animal HEALTH threats are disrupting production in markets where cattle supplies are already historically low, likely further driving up cattle prices, RaboResearch explained. The United States and Mexico are collaborating daily to develop tactics and tools for the effective eradication of the New World screwworm.

Global beef production is expected to decline through the end of the year, with an overall decline of 2% in 2025.

Brazil is likely to experience the largest contraction, with a projected 5% decline, followed by New Zealand with a 4% contraction. Europe, the US, and China are also expected to contract. Australia is one of the few regions where production is expected to grow.

Trade negotiations

On April 5, tariffs were imposed on many countries exporting beef to the United States. Additional retaliatory tariffs for some countries are currently suspended until early July.

Meanwhile, tariff escalation between the US and China has been suspended until early August, although China still maintains a 20% tariff. In addition to the tariffs, China has not yet renewed the registration of US beef EXPORT plants.

As negotiations progress, beef trade volumes are beginning to shift globally. RaboResearch noted emerging reports that Chinese buyers are increasingly focusing on Australia, New Zealand, and South America as beef suppliers.

"Much of the media attention has focused on the imposition of tariffs, but this may be just a prelude to the main event," Gidley-Baird said. "In just a few months, countries have entered into trade negotiations with 30-day deadlines. The result has been the largest number of trade deals we've seen in decades. While the tariffs may have made headlines and caused problems, the real story will be about the consequences of the changing dynamics of global trade."

The full extent of the trade war remains to be seen, but RaboResearch is cautiously optimistic about the beef market.

"Beef is not considered a targeted product, and most major exporters face only basic tariffs," Gidley-Baird explained. "Therefore, early indications suggest that competitiveness will be maintained, albeit at the cost of additional system costs. The global supply and demand situation should support current trade flows. However, if the tariff war between the US and China escalates and Europe becomes more involved, this will likely change."