World meat prices will rise

International MEAT prices declined in 2020 due to the impact of covid-19 , which temporarily curtailed meat consumption and demand from some of the top consuming and importing countries. Logistical barriers, cuts in household spending due to lower incomes, contributed to lower demand. Falls in international meat prices would have been higher were it not for a surge in Chinese meat imports, where ASF continues to restrict local production.

How the market has evolved in 2020

Global meat production remained stable in 2020 at around 328 million tonnes as poultry and lamb production rises to offset declines in pork and bovine meat. Total poultry meat production in 2020 is estimated at 134 million tonnes, up 1.2% from 2019, thanks to a surge in demand in CHINA.

The ongoing outbreak of ASF has been a major factor in the decline in pork production in East Asia, especially in China. Beef production has also fallen in some major producing countries due to limited availability of animals for slaughter (in Australia, New Zealand and the European Union) and regulations related to animal welfare and the purchase and transport of animals by the processing sector (India).

Global meat imports reached 36.3 million tons in 2020, up 6.3% year on year, driven mainly by imports from China ; excluding China, global meat imports fell by 1.4 million tons, or 4.3%.

Leading exporters - including Brazil, CANADA, the European Union, the Russian Federation and the United States - provided most of the increased import demand for meat.

Prices

Meat prices are expected to come off the lows caused by COVID-19 and rise slightly. However, they will remain well below their ten-year-old peaks. Projected increases in nominal meat prices are expected for all types of meat, although each sub-sector has a different dynamic. However, the ratio of nominal meat prices to feed prices is forecast to decline, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. The downward trend in this ratio reflects the continuous growth of feed productivity in the sector, resulting in the need for less feed per unit of meat. However, higher feed costs further reduce the profitability of meat production.

All meat prices are projected to return to longer-term real price trends. The exception is mutton, which prices have shown an upward trend as exports from New Zealand have been constrained by rising grazing opportunity costs driven by rising long-term real dairy prices.

The price of pork in actively traded Pacific markets will rise early in the forecast period to meet robust demand, especially from China, but will be held back by rising EXPORT supplies from Brazil, the European Union and the United States.

 Poultry prices are expected to respond to changes in grain prices given the high share of feed costs in poultry production. Beef prices are forecast to rise, but the rise will be limited as meat and cattle stock levels increase in key exporting countries such as Argentina, Australia and the US.

And this fact will be taken into account when preparing the monthly analytical report Meatinfo.ru