Global meat trade in 2026: Beef and pork trade stagnates, while chicken trade continues to grow

Pork

After rising in 2025, sales of beef and pork from major exporting countries are projected to decline in 2026. At the same time, supplies are expected toChicken MEAT trade will continue to grow, reaching record levels. Global meat trade has seen several notable changes since 2019. While growth rates in 2017 and 2018 were in line with historical averages, pork trade experienced a strong surge in 2019 and 2020, leading global meat trade growth and exceeding beef trade volumes in 2020 and 2021.

This notable increase in pork trade was driven by increased demand in CHINA following outbreaks of African swine fever ( ASF ), which devastated domestic production. In 2022 and 2023, global meat trade contracted as expanded beef and chicken trade failed to offset the decline in Chinese pork demand. Lower feed prices in 2024 and 2025, coupled with relatively fewer major disease outbreaks in key exporting countries, led to an increase in global exports of all types of meat, particularly U.S. beef imports , due to reduced domestic production.

Given declining beef supplies to Oceania, Brazil, and the United States, beef trade is expected to decline in 2026, despite strong demand. Pork exports will also decline, as lower production in the EU will limit supplies. Only chicken trade is projected to grow, thanks to significant exports from Brazil and China .

Global pork production is forecast to remain virtually unchanged at 117.2 million tonnes in 2026, as increased production in Vietnam, Brazil, and Mexico is offset by lower production in the European Union. Vietnam's pork production is projected to increase by 3% to 4 million tonnes, driven by strong domestic demand, which is stimulating pig herd expansion.

In Brazil, production is forecast to increase by 1% to 4.7 million tonnes, driven by strong international demand for Brazilian pork, which continues to drive sector expansion. Production in Mexico is expected to grow by 3% to 1.4 million tonnes, as investments in improved biosecurity are expected to lead to increased slaughter volumes in 2026. Production in the European Union is forecast to decline by 1% to 21.5 million tonnes. Major producing regions in the EU continue to face pressure from rising regulatory costs. Furthermore, recent cases of African swine fever (ASF) in Spain are expected to put downward pressure on EU pork prices .

Global exports are projected to decline by 1% in 2026, as growth in exports from Brazil, the United States, and CANADA does not offset declines in exports from the European Union. Brazilian exports are projected to increase by 4% to 1.8 million tonnes, driven by increased product availability and improved market access.

Canada's exports are forecast to increase by 1%, driven by a modest increase in production and increased efforts to diversify exports away from China. Exports to the EU are expected to decline by 7% to 2.8 million tonnes due to reduced EXPORT capacity and ongoing trade restrictions related to African swine fever.

it is worth noting that a number of key EU export markets remain closed to imports from Spain or maintain restrictions on imports from the Spanish region affected by African swine fever.

US production and export

U.S. pork production is projected to remain virtually unchanged at 12.5 million tonnes in 2026, as increased hog weights largely offset the decline in slaughter rates caused by an expected decline in farrowing in 2026. Despite improved sector profitability in 2025, production growth has been occasionally constrained by the spread of disease. U.S. exports are expected to increase 1 percent in 2026 to 3.2 million tonnes, driven by stable domestic supply, highly competitive export prices, and robust demand from Central America. A recent trade agreement with Malaysia is also expected to create additional opportunities for pork exports.

Chicken meat

Global production is projected to increase by 2% in 2026, reaching a record 109.6 million tonnes. Growth is expected in all major producing countries, with the largest increases expected in China, Brazil, the United States, and the European Union. Consumer demand for cheaper and more versatile animal protein continues to drive production growth, supported by a slight decline in feed prices. China , the world's largest producer, is expected to show the strongest growth among the major producing countries, as large, vertically integrated white broiler producers continue to expand capacity despite low profit margins. White and hybrid broilers will continue to drive production growth in China, while yellow broiler production is expected to remain stable.

Over the past five years, the share of white broiler chickens in Chinese poultry production has increased significantly. Brazil is projected to reach record production volumes thanks to lower overall production costs, a weaker currency, and increased external demand following the restoration of access to key foreign markets such as China and the EU. Since May 2025, commercial poultry farms in Brazil have been free of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).

Global exports are projected to grow by 3% in 2026, marking the third consecutive year of trade growth, driven by rising demand for lower-cost animal protein and population growth. However, this global growth is largely driven by increased supplies from Brazil and China. Brazilian product availability, competitive pricing, and market access are fueling growth in key import markets.

Despite market access restrictions, Chinese exports benefit from competitive product prices, favorable financial conditions for trade, and demand for labor-intensive, heat-treated goods. While Japan and Hong Kong remain China's primary export markets, China's economic growth will be driven largely by increased shipments to RUSSIA, Southeast Asia, and Africa, as well as the European Union and the United Kingdom.

US production and export

U.S. production is projected to increase by 1 percent, reaching a record 22 million tonnes in 2026, thanks to a slight decline in feed prices and the assumption of no major disease outbreaks. Exports are projected to increase by just 1 percent, reaching nearly 3.1 billion tonnes, remaining below pre-HPAI levels. Export supply shortages, ongoing HPAI-related restrictions, and increased price competition are limiting supply volumes.