The scientist predicted the sixth wave of COVID-19 in Russia in the summer

In the summer in RUSSIA, according to a forecast compiled using a mathematical model, the sixth wave of CORONAVIRUS may begin. This was told to RIA Novosti by the HEAD of the Competence Center of the National Technology Initiative of St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, head of the working group on mathematical modeling of covid-19 Alexei Borovkov.

The scientist leads the working group on mathematical modeling and forecasting of COVID-19, which built a model of the spread of coronavirus for Moscow and St. Petersburg until the end of summer.

“Until the summer, the coronavirus will definitely not recede, it will slowly recede. We look at the curves obtained in the process of solving the system of differential equations, and we see that after February these curves will decay. <...>. According to our forecasts, around mid-April, we can again return to the same number of cases as now, ”said Borovkov.

According to the expert, the summer surge in the incidence may be associated with an increase in the tourist flow, in particular, in St. Petersburg. “If by that time a new subspecies of the strain arrives and someone brings it to us, intensive mixing can give rise to another wave,” the scientist said.

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Experts interviewed by RBC expressed doubts about the absolute accuracy of the forecast based on the mathematical model. Associate Professor of the Department of Infectious Diseases of the Peoples' Friendship University Sergey Voznesensky noted that such models should be perceived hypothetically.

“[The model] is based on the patterns that have been, but it cannot always take into account the patterns that will appear, I mean the emergence of new strains, their aggressiveness, their antigenic variability and how the human immune system will react to this,” he declared. As Voznesensky noted, the point of view that everything will not end with the “omicron” strain has the right to exist.

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According to Voznesensky, the likelihood that a new strain and a new wave of coronavirus will emerge by the summer is negligible. “Today, Omicron continues to crowd out other strains from all territories. [A new wave is possible] with the emergence of a new strain that will be more aggressive than it is today,” he added.

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DIRECTOR of the HSE Institute for HEALTH Economics Larisa Popovich urged to treat the model “calmly and with a certain degree of skepticism”. “Modeling the behavior of the coronavirus is quite a thankless task, because in every country and in every situation it behaves differently. I do not undertake to predict what will happen in the summer. Whether this will be the sixth wave and whether it is possible to predict the development of the epidemic process with such accuracy, time will tell, ”Popovich said. She recalled that during the pandemic it has already become clear that not all forecasts come true and the emergence of new strains and viruses is a random process.

How the number of hospitalizations with coronavirus in Russia is changing February 17 The number of hospitalized and diagnosed cases per day. The operational headquarters began to provide open regular statistics on hospitalizations from January 20, 2022 Created with Highcharts 8.2.2