How the second month of the military operation in Ukraine

endedannounced the start of the second phase of the operation. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that negotiations with Ukraine are progressing "slowly"

 What events happened during the second month of the special operation

On April 13, the Finnish government published a report on the changed security situation. it contained theses in favor of the country's entry into NATO. The Prime Ministers of Finland and Sweden, at a joint press conference in Stockholm, stated the need to respond to the changing balance of power. In response, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, promised to forget "about the non-nuclear status of the Baltic."

On April 14, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the missile cruiser Moskva, sank. From the crew of the cruiser, one person died, another 27 were missing, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

On April 21, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported to Vladimir Putin that the Russian military, together with the forces of the People's Militia of the DPR, had taken Mariupol, the battles for which had been going on almost from the first days of the special operation in Ukraine. “The remnants of the nationalist formations took refuge in the industrial zone of the Azovstal plant,” the minister added. The enterprise was blocked by Putin's order.

Military operation in Ukraine. Online Politics

Against the backdrop of what is happening in Ukraine, NATO countries have several times announced their intention to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine in connection with the offensive against Donbass.

Since the beginning of the Russian military operation, more than 5 million people have left Ukraine, according to the data of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson admitted that hostilities in Ukraine could last until the end of 2023, and RUSSIA could emerge victorious from the situation.

Read on RBC Pro Pro The best marketing is free:how Mailchimp found the idea of ​​development in a crisis Articles Pro IT companies on suitcases.Will support measures help stop their departure?sanctions The European sky is closed to Russia. Who will benefit from this air blockade Articles Pro “Now Russia is Crimea”:

The second stage of the special operation

After two months of conducting a special military operation in Ukraine, Russia announced the start of its second stage. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on April 19, this "will be a very important moment" of the entire military operation, but did not disclose details. Three days later, Deputy Commander of the Central Military District, Rustam Minnekaev, said that during the second stage of the special operation, the Russian army plans to establish control over the Donbass and southern Ukraine, as well as provide a land corridor to Crimea. He also added that control over the south of Ukraine would give the Russian armed forces another outlet to Transnistria, "where there are facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population."

A task force of Russian troops is based in the Transnistrian region of Moldova. The Russian military base in Transnistria is completely autonomous and independent, Gazeta.Ru quoted ex-officer of the headquarters of the 14th Army, Lieutenant Colonel Nikolai Lizunov. About 1,700 people serve in the base, mostly natives of the republic with Russian citizenship, the newspaper wrote.

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The creation of a corridor in Transnistria means that Russia should take the third largest city in Ukraine, Odessa, and one of the largest economic centers of the country, Nikolaev, Igor Nikolaychuk, ex-head of the Regional Security Problems Sector of the Center for Euro-Atlantic and Defense Studies of the RISS, said in a conversation with RBC. He recalled that the main naval base of the Naval Forces of Ukraine is located in Odessa. There are several shipyards in Nikolaev, an aircraft repair plant, as well as enterprises in the electrical and electronic industries. One of the largest plants in the city is the Nikolaev Alumina Plant, which produces alumina, a raw material for aluminum production. Nikolaev is a major transport hub of Ukraine. The city has four ports. Main exported commodities: agricultural products, oils,

However, according to Nikolaichuk, while negotiations with Kyiv are ongoing, Nikolaev and Odessa are turning into powerful centers of resistance: barricades are being built there, firing points are being prepared in houses, and so on. “That is, the Mariupol scenario may repeat itself,” the expert believes.

What areas are included in Southern Ukraine

In addition to Odessa and Nikolaev regions, southern Ukraine also includes Kherson, Zaporozhye and Dnipropetrovsk regions. “Their capture solves the main tasks of the Russian army in Ukraine: this is the access of the DPR and LPR to the borders of administrative regions and providing Crimea with a land corridor, which means food and everything else,” the expert explained.

On March 15, the Russian military reported that the Kherson region had been taken under full control. Kherson region has administrative borders with Crimea. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for 2020, the population of the region before the start of the special operation exceeded one million people. Of these, about 300 thousand lived in the industrial and cultural center of the region - Kherson. This is a major railway junction, a sea and river port, an international airport; There are several shipbuilding and ship repair enterprises in the city. Kherson Shipbuilding Plant is one of the largest enterprises of this kind.

The Zaporozhye region has been partially under the control of Russian troops since mid-March: the military reported that they had established control over Melitopol, Berdyansk, Vasylivka, Energodar and the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. Whether any territories in the Dnepropetrovsk region are controlled by the Russian military, the Ministry of Defense did not report.

How do negotiations proceed against the backdrop of hostilities?

In the two months since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, several attempts have been made to reach an agreement, four rounds of face-to-face negotiations and dozens of video calls have taken place, but on key political issues, the parties have not been able to bring their positions closer. The first negotiations were held on February 28 at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. The next time the delegations met a week later, on March 3, this time in Belovezhskaya Pushcha, already on the border of Belarus and Poland. Another face-to-face talks were held on March 7 - already in the Brest region.

The last time the parties met in person was on March 29 in Istanbul. Then Moscow, as the HEAD of the Russian delegation Vladimir Medinsky said, for the first time received written proposals from Ukraine on a peace treaty. Kyiv was ready to refuse to join NATO, to return Crimea and Donbass by military means (but did not recognize their status as independent from Ukraine, but offered to resolve the issue definitively in the next 15 years), and also agreed to a nuclear-free status. At the same time, Ukraine demanded that security guarantees be provided to it. Great Britain, CHINA , the usa , Turkey, France, CANADA, Italy, Poland and Israel could become guarantors , the Ukrainian side said.

Following the talks in Istanbul, Russia announced a reduction in military activity in the Kiev and Chernigov directions. “Due to the fact that negotiations with Ukraine are moving into a practical plane,” said Russian Deputy Defense Minister and member of the negotiating team Alexander Fomin.

Fights for Azovstal: why Putin canceled the assault on the plant Politics

On April 21, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Moscow had lost confidence in Ukrainian negotiators due to what she said was Kyiv's ever-changing stance. She also added that on April 15, the Russian side handed over counter proposals to Ukraine to resolve the conflict. From the new, Moscow began to insist on the participation of Belarus in the signing of documents on security guarantees for Ukraine, Alexei Polishchuk, head of the CIS department, told TASS. According to him, permanent members of the UN Security Council could also become guarantors of Ukraine's security. He also noted that "at the ongoing negotiations, the position of the Ukrainian delegation also wobbles from side to side."

A week later, on April 22, the head of the EU diplomatic department, Josep Borrell, said that Vladimir Putin refused to negotiate on Ukraine. “To work at the negotiating table? Of course! Tomorrow, now! The problem is that Putin says no,” Borrell said. He also told how the recent visit to Moscow of Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer went, he stated the following: “The Austrian Chancellor returned and said that Putin does not want to talk about negotiations, that he is preparing a big offensive in the Donbass.” On the evening of the same day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the negotiations with Ukraine were progressing "slowly" and demonstrated Kyiv's failure and inability to negotiate. According to Lavrov, there is a feeling that Ukraine is not interested in them and "resigned to its fate."

What does the failure of the flagship missile cruiser Moskva mean? Politics

Despite the fact that there is no progress on the political part of the negotiations, the parties managed to agree on at least six exchanges of prisoners.

Negotiations on the political part are now indefinitely far away, the political scientist, editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine believes. Those goals that the Ministry of Defense announced on April 22 are not achieved through negotiations, the expert says. “A military victory and the actual surrender of the enemy is how you can achieve, fix the goals that were made public today,” says Lukyanov. - Because at the moment there are no signs that anyone can agree to this - neither Ukraine nor the West. Now, it seems to me, the diplomatic direction is not working.”

In his opinion, negotiations can resume only when the military phase is over - when it becomes clear that it will not be possible to change the established status quo by military means. At the same time, he is not inclined to consider two months of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine a fiction. “I think that a number of issues that were discussed there will still be relevant, including a neutral and nuclear-free status. What could not be discussed diplomatically was the change of borders. As for all the other points, the negotiations were not meaningless, but at this stage they were of an expert nature. The Foreign Ministry has a favorite phrase: “working out modalities” in case they are needed,” Lukyanov sums up.