USDA: China's meat consumption could increase by 40% by 2031

In their opinion, this trend opens up new opportunities for exporters, but, on the other hand, creates additional problems in terms of global food security and increased stress on the environment. USDA economists Fred Gale and Fengxia Dong estimate that per capita meat consumption in China is 53.9 kilograms per year—the same as Japan and half that of the United States , and By 2031 it could increase by 40%. China is the world leader in pork production and ranks second in poultry meat, the report noted. Over several decades of rapid economic growth, this Asian country has become the largest importer and consumer of meat products.

Today, meat provides an average of 19% of the calories in the Chinese daily diet, up from 4% in the 1960s. Pork certainly predominates in it (about 40 kilograms per capita per year). Meat production in China decreased in 2019-2020 due to the African swine fever epidemic, but in 2021 it recovered to a record 89 million tons. According to the USDA forecast, by 2025 the increase will be more modest - up to 93 million tons. Consumer demand is more difficult to predict.

Population of Chinadecreased, and India is now the most populous country in the world. In addition, household income growth has slowed in recent years. Despite the fact that some Chinese residents still do not receive the physiological norm of essential nutrients, the prevalence of obesity, cardiovascular and other diseases associated with overeating has prompted health officials to recommend limiting meat consumption. As in other countries, the PRC has expressed concern about the negative impact of livestock farming on the environment. At the same time, meat consumption in China is growing, and statistical models confirm a rather low price elasticity of demand (EDP). Based on the relationship between income and prices, analysts came to the conclusion that