Rabobank forecasts growth in EU poultry production

The EU chicken trade surplus is expected to decline slightly in 2023 and 2024 as imports increase and exports remain flat. As consumption resumes in the Horeca sector, demand for inexpensive imported chicken cuts is growing, especially from Brazil, Thailand and especially Ukraine.

Poultry imports from the UK continue to face post-Brexit restrictions related to EU veterinary inspection and other import requirements that now apply to chicken meat from the UK. It is expected that in 2023, imports of chicken meat from Ukraine will double.

At the same time, EU chicken meat exports to the UK are expected to grow by 7 percent in 2023. Brazilian chicken will put EU producers at a disadvantage, especially in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Exports from the EU will continue to be restricted in 2023 while HPAI bans remain in place.

Chicken remains the preferred animal protein compared to more expensive beef and pork products. Given rising food inflation and higher energy costs, chicken meat consumption in the EU will remain high in 2023 and 2024. Consumption in the EU is closely linked to demographic growth, and per capita consumption is also growing slowly. While specialty production schemes including organic, free-range and non-GMO chicken are widely supported across the EU, sales of inexpensive chicken cuts are growing at a faster rate than higher-priced products such as breasts and whole birds.