Rabobank warns of global pork trade restructuring due to tariffs and diseases

Europe and Latin America are strengthening their positions in CHINA.

According to the report, rising trade tensions between China and the United States   are creating space for new suppliers. Although both countries have agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs, additional duties on American pork remain in place and could slow shipments. This opens the door for exporters such as   Brazil , Chile, and the European Union, which could take advantage of this opportunity to strengthen their position in the Chinese market.

"This situation could support prices in China and benefit alternative suppliers," explains Christine McCracken, senior animal protein analyst at RaboResearch. At the same time, American exporters could suffer losses in by-products and face a squeeze on margins, which would particularly impact the MEAT sector.

The pig survives, but the context does not support this.

Despite the recovery, demand shows no signs of significant improvement before the end of the year, warns Rabobank. Slowing economic growth, pressure on household spending, and the likelihood of further business disruptions mean the sector faces an uncertain future. However, high prices for beef and chicken, as well as a shift in consumption from the hospitality sector to retail, could benefit pork, which typically sells better in supermarkets.

On the production side, low sow population growth rates and HEALTH concerns are limiting global supply.

Foot-and-mouth disease, African swine fever and PRRS: diseases continue to rage.

The report highlights several alarming health concerns. Foot-and-mouth disease has re-emerged in Europe after decades without cases, and new outbreaks have been reported in SOUTH KOREA. Although trade restrictions are gradually being lifted, the damage has already been done. The situation is exacerbated by new cases of African swine fever (ASF) in Europe and Asia, as well as the persistence of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in parts of North America and Europe.

These diseases not only complicate production but also affect demand in some markets.

Good feed forecasts, but with nuances

As for costs, there's been some respite. A good harvest in South America and progress in the Northern Hemisphere sowing season are stabilizing feed prices. Rabobank expects costs to remain stable through 2025, although it doesn't rule out surprises: weather and the geopolitical situation remain key variables.