The IEA predicted a reduction in oil production in Russia by a third

Possible interruptions in the supply of Russian oil against the backdrop of new sanctions could cause a global shock in the market, and oil production in Russia itself could fall by a third, according to a monthly report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

According to the agency, the export of Russian oil and oil products may be reduced by 2.5-3 million barrels. per day (b./s.), And these losses can become even greater in the event of a ban on supplies and increased sanctions pressure. At the same time, as the IEA noted, pipeline oil supplies from Russia to Europe, China and Belarus will continue, while sea supplies to China may even increase.

The volume indicated in the IEA report is about a third of all oil production in Russia, which in February 2022 was estimated by the agency at 10.1 million barrels per day.

According to the dispatcher's office of the fuel and energy complex (CDU TEK), in February, the average daily oil production in Russia amounted to 11.04 million barrels.

Agency experts point out that only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have free production capacities that can immediately help compensate for the shortage of oil from Russia.

In addition to the OPEC+ countries, oil supplies to the world market in the future can also be increased by the United States , Canada, Brazil and Guyana, the authors of the report predict.