Experts explained the accelerated decline in the birth rate in Russia

In the first half of 2022, the birth rate in RUSSIA decreased by 6.3%, Rosstat reported. The experts explained to RBC,

In January-June 2022, 635.2 thousand children were born in Russia, which is 42.9 thousand or 6.3% less than the result of the same period in 2021, follows from Rosstat data. Prior to this, the rate of decline in the absolute number of births has been slowing down since 2019: then in the first half of the year the reduction reached 8.1%, in the first half of 2020 the number of newborns decreased by 5.4%, in January-June 2021 - by 0.4 %.

In June 2022, the decline in the birth rate was especially deep - minus 9.6% compared to June of the previous year.

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The number of people born in Russia has been declining since 2014, according to Rosstat data. At the end of 2021, it amounted to just under 1.4 million people, which is 2.7% less than in 2020. In 2020, the number of newborns decreased by 3%.

RBC sent requests to the Ministry of Labor and the Ministry of HEALTH. As RBC wrote earlier, the Ministry of Labor predicts a decline in the birth rate in Russia until 2024. Among the main reasons for this, the department cites the decline in the number of women aged 20–29, which is already happening (children are being born by small generations of the 1990s and early 2000s), as well as the uncertainty in the labor market, forcing the middle class to abandon reproductive intentions .

Why has the decline in fertility accelerated?

The deepening decline in the birth rate in the first half of the year could be affected by the uncertainty of the situation with the covid-19 pandemic in 2021, Vladimir Kozlov, Associate Professor at the HSE Institute of Demography, believes. If you look at the months, a sharper negative trend began in March this year, he noted. But, according to him, for final conclusions, it is important to wait until the end of the year: after all, birth rates for the first half of the year and for the whole year may differ.

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Fertility is a multifactorial process that is affected by the pandemic, sanctions , and any changes that lead to a decrease in living standards and confidence in the future among the young part of the population, notes Irina Kalabikhina, HEAD of the Department of Population at the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University. “As a rule, during a crisis, the birth rate falls, as people postpone births,” she recalls.

On the other hand, population policy continues and contributes to maintaining the birth rate. Which factor will be stronger as a result depends on the depth and duration of the crisis, Kalabikhina states.

Today, the state is pursuing an active policy of stimulating the birth rate, within the framework of which, for example, monthly payments are made for women registered in the early stages of pregnancy, payments for the first and second child for families with a certain income level, and others. The largest of the incentive measures is the maternity capital program, which has been in place since 2007. Initially, it extended to the second and subsequent children, but in 2020 it was extended to the first-born. According to the FIU, more than 1 million families received certificates in 2021.

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A significant drawback of state support measures for the birth rate is their temporary nature, notes Igor Efremov, a researcher at the international laboratory of demography and human capital at the Gaidar Institute. As a result, citizens, realizing that the incentive program will end soon, or hearing discussions, for example, about the expediency of maternity capital, change the calendar of births.

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“For example, a family was planning a second child in three years, but expecting the program to disappear, they may have it in a year. Because of this, jumps in the birth rate constantly occur, and then failures, ”the expert believes.

Kozlov from the Higher School of Economics agrees with him. Unclear prospects for extending a number of family policy programs may indeed have a negative effect on the dynamics of the birth rate, he admits.

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COVID-19, like any viral disease, can negatively affect the reproductive system, notes obstetrician-gynecologist, chief physician of the GM clinic Sofya Melkomyan. According to her, there are already some studies both in Russia and abroad, which allow us to conclude that the reproductive function really suffers, and more in men - they have problems associated with sperm formation.

It is not recommended to get pregnant and plan a pregnancy immediately after the illness - it is better to wait at least three months, the expert notes. At the same time, it makes sense to conduct a slightly more extended study of the body, primarily in terms of blood clotting, since the virus affects this indicator, she recommends.

The degree of influence of the virus on the reproductive system depends on the severity of the disease, points out obstetrician-gynecologist, reproductologist of the MD Group Clinical Hospital (“Mother and Child”) Maria Milyutina. At the same time, it is difficult to distinguish what the virus affects, and what - the drugs that are used to treat it. After taking certain drugs, such as areplivir and its analogues, a woman is prohibited from planning a pregnancy for a month, and a man for three months. “If a child is conceived immediately after such treatment, it is practically guaranteed that he will have gross malformations. Other drugs, such as antibiotics, can also negatively affect the baby, ”the expert believes.

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What will be the demographic situation in the future

Fertility in absolute terms - the number of births - will decline mainly due to a decrease in the number of women of childbearing age, says Kalabikhina. “2022 and 2023 promise not to be the best years in terms of birth rates,” she notes.

Efremov from the Gaidar Institute has no positive forecasts either. In his opinion, about 1.3 million children will be born in 2022, which is about 8% lower than the result of the previous year, but this drop will not be catastrophic or record-breaking (for example, in 2017 the number of births decreased by 10.5%). The decrease in the number of births due to the sanctions crisis will occur a little later, in early 2023, he believes: “Sanctions provoked a drop in income and a contraction in employment. At the same time, there is a correlation between the dynamics of the income of the population and the birth rate nine months later. As a result, in 2023 the situation will be much worse than in 2022.”

Other things being equal, the decline in real disposable income reduces the birth rate, especially of second children, Kozlov confirms. According to Rosstat, the real disposable income of Russians in the second quarter of 2022 decreased by 0.8% year-on-year. The previous decline was recorded a quarter earlier and amounted to 1.2%.

To support the birth rate, the state should focus on measures to increase the income of the population, both through salaries and through benefits, Yefremov is sure. The positive experience of such measures took place in 2009, when there was a severe crisis and economic recession, but due to the growth of social payments, the government was able to prevent a decline in income (at the end of the year, real disposable income grew by 3%) and, as a result, the birth rate (the number of births also increased by 3%.

According to Kalabikhina, the potential for the development of Russia's socio-demographic policy lies mainly in improving the "family-work" balance. In particular, she considers it important to modernize the maternity leave system through the introduction of non-transferable paternity leave (that is, those that can only be used by men, in addition to new mothers), the development of the institution of certified nannies, the return of nursery groups in full and the growth of a variety of public assistance for childcare. A number of these measures will be included in the national strategy for action in the interests of women, which is currently being developed by the Ministry of Labor.

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