FT predicted rolling blackouts in Europe in

2023and Erdogan's victory in the presidential election.Last year, only 5 forecasts from the FT did not come true

In 2023, the EU countries can expect rolling blackouts, the conflict in Ukraine will continue, and Joe Biden will again run for president of the United States , according to the annual forecast from the authors of the Financial Times (FT).

The newspaper recalls that of the predictions for 2022, only some of the authors’ assumptions did not come true: Tesla shares fell in price, Democrats retained control of the US Senate, and a more contagious version of covid-19 never appeared.

This year, the FT authors made five new predictions for 2023.

Continued conflict in Ukraine throughout the year . According to the authors, freezing the conflict in the current conditions will not satisfy either RUSSIA or Ukraine. At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is waiting for the supply of modern Western weapons, and Russian leader Vladimir Putin is “trying to regroup,” the FT recalls. Rolling Blackouts in Europe . The FT authors believe that this could happen before April if the weather is cold enough. At the same time, next winter, in their opinion, will be a real test for Europeans. This is due, among other things, to the cessation of Russian gas supplies and the congestion of the energy system, which may cause technical problems. The increase in global warming at the end of the year did notwill exceed the threshold of 1.5 degrees . The authors note that the planet has already warmed by about 1.1 degrees compared to the average temperature of 2011-2020, but further growth in 2022 can be avoided. Nevertheless, the planet is likely to warm up by 1.5 degrees already in 2024-2026. The US Federal Reserve will not start cutting interest rates . The Fed rate will peak at 4.9% in the first half of 2023 and reach 5% by the end of 2023, the authors suggested. Rishi Sunak will remain British Prime Minister . Despite the fact that the new British prime minister "looks increasingly beleaguered", he has a good chance of retaining his post in 2023. Sunak is a "more enduring character" than either Boris Johnson or Liz Truss, the FT writes. The ECB will not support the bond markets of Italy or other EU countries . The newspaper recalls the "hawkish position" of ECB President Christine Lagarde, and also suggests a further increase in regulator rates. Because of this, the bond yields of most European countries will be limited, but the ECB is unlikely to support them. Joe Biden will again run for President of the United States . While Biden will be 81 years old by the 2024 election, a strong Democratic run in the midterms puts the current president on a “good footing” for re-nomination, the authors point out. Donald Trump faces new charges. The former US president is likely to face new charges for an attempt by his supporters to storm the Capitol in January 2020 or for keeping secret documents in his personal residence. At the same time, the FT notes that Trump "without a doubt" will deny everything and challenge it in COURT. CHINA will be able to restore economic growth above 5% . China faces a “gloomy” end of 2023, associated with a move away from the “zero tolerance” policy for COVID-19. However, once the country learns to “live with COVID”, economic activity should recover sharply. Beijing won't invade Taiwan. An invasion would be a "colossal gamble" that could cause Xi Jinping to lose his influence and power, the FT writes. The blockade of the island, in their opinion, is much more likely. However, this would also lead to a confrontation with the United States, which entails huge risks for the PRC. Recep Tayyip Erdogan will retain the presidency . The current president "will use a variety of methods, honest and dishonest, to stay in power," and the continuation of his rule promises big economic consequences for Turkey, the authors of the FT point out. Protests in Iran will not end . Months of demonstrations will continue due to economic problems in Iran caused by Western sanctions. Also, according to the authors of the FT, the Iranian protests "demonstrate resilience." African countries are facing a series of defaults. Due to soaring interest rates and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, debt servicing in some African countries is “becoming unsustainable”, which could escalate into default, with subsequent debt restructuring. Among such countries, the newspaper mentions Chad, Ethiopia and Zambia. S&P 500 by 10%. The fall of the US stock market in 2022 has already become a record, but it will continue due to the impending recession. Twitter won't shut down, users won't leave . Despite Elon Musk's extravagant behavior, Twitter users won't leave the platform because it has no real alternative. However, the financial losses of the social network in 2023 are likely to increase. Another big cryptocurrency business will fail. Following FTX, a number of large cryptocurrency companies may go bankrupt in 2023 as venture capital firms and retail traders continue to poach customers. None of the major streaming platforms will merge with another . Discussed over the past year are options for merging NBC with Universal, Warner Bros. with Discovery, Disney with APPLE, or Netflix with anyone else will probably not happen as the platforms are still intent on post-COVID-19 revenue growth. Big deals are possible in 2024, FT authors believe. 

Musk called Medvedev's forecasts for 2023 "epic" Politics

In addition to the FT, experts from the Danish investment bank Saxo Bank come forward every year in the genre of “shocking forecasts” – each time they suggest unlikely events of a global scale that can have a significant impact on the global economy.

Last year, analysts at Saxo Bank, for example, predicted that plans to phase out fossil fuels would be shelved this year due to high costs. As it turned out, a number of European countries, including Germany, this year really began to return coal energy to the system. The forecast for inflation in the US at 15% did not come true, but it exceeded 8% and set a record for the past 40 years. The bank also predicted another cold war; at the same time, the development of hypersonic technologies, which should stimulate the space race, was called its cause.

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