BofA: S&P 500 could hit 3,000 points by October 2022

Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett suggests that the S&P 500 has not bottomed yet.Thus, the index may fall by another 25% Moscow Exchange Index IMOEX2393.03 -0,49% SPB Exchange SPBE ₽254,9-3,7% Buy RTS RTSI1088.02 -2,85%

The S&P 500 closed below 4,000 on Monday for the first time since March 2021, dropping 3.2% to hit 3,991.23. Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 has already lost more than 16%, according to Bank of America experts, it will continue to fall over the next six months, according to Fortune.

Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett believes the markets are in for months of "pain" based on past downturns.

“In the last 19 bear markets, the average drop from peak to bottom was 37% with an average duration of 289 days. If history repeats itself, the bear market   should end in October 2022 with the S&P at 3,000,” Bank of America Research analysts wrote in a Sunday report.

If the experts' calculations are correct, then this means that the S&P 500 still has about a 25 percent decline from current levels. Hartnett also argues that the market will spend most of the year experiencing "inflationary shock", "rate shock" and " recession shock   ", which will lead to negative returns and increased volatility   . “The good news is that bear markets move faster than bull markets,” he added.

The S&P 500 posted its worst 4 months since 1939. BofA predicted a new collapse of the S&P500 ,  USA , Stocks

Hartnett is also not bullish on the tech sector, arguing that more speculative tech stocks will remain in the bear market for the next two years even if the S&P 500 hits a bottom. “The bottom does not equate to a new bull market for tech stocks,” he said.

But some experts are not so skeptical. Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Wilson - one of Wall Street's most notorious bears - has told clients that the S&P 500 index has minimal downside potential to 3,800 in the near term and could fall to 3,460.

A similar forecast was given by Bob Farrell, a former analyst and fund manager at Merrill Lynch.

“Growth stocks are coming out of the favorites, we are seeing big stocks that have supported the S&P 500 crashing. By the time all this is over, it is likely that they will all fall further. If the S&P 500 goes down 30%, which I think is quite possible, then you will see the 3460 mark.”

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A macroeconomic term for a significant decline in economic activity. The main indicator of a recession is the decline in GDP for two quarters in a row. Change in price over a certain period of time. Financial indicator in financial risk management. Characterizes the trend of price volatility - a sharp drop or rise leads to an increase in volatility. Read more Investors and traders on the stock exchange seeking to capitalize on declining asset values. This strategy is applied to short positions (as opposed to "bulls").