US Cattle Market Review for Week 14, April 7, 2025

Global investors faced growing chances of an economic downturn and a widening trade war after Trump announced Wednesday a 10% tariff on most U.S. imports and much higher duties on dozens of other countries.

Massive selling spilled into livestock markets as analysts warned that economic weakness threatened demand for high-priced beef . They added that retaliatory measures to Trump's tariffs could hurt U.S. beef EXPORT sales to key buyers such as Japan and South Korea .

Historically low cattle supplies to the US in recent years have led to increased beef imports, which are mixed with domestic supplies to produce hamburger MEAT for retailers and restaurants. Now, Trump's tariffs threaten to raise prices for imports from countries like Australia , analysts say. Australian beef farmers and traders have said they will pass on the additional costs of the US tariffs to American consumers.

"The biggest concerns for restaurant operators—from community restaurants to national brands—are that tariffs will increase food and packaging costs and add uncertainty to managing availability while pushing up prices for consumers," said Michelle Korsmo, CEO of the National Restaurant Association .

Live cattle futures closed down $5.42 on Friday to settle at a limit of $6.50, as the April contract closed down $6.20 for the week. The limits will be extended to $9.75 on Monday. Cattle in the southern cash markets have traded at $208 this week, down $1-2 from last week. Northern sales were stable, down $1 to $212-213. Feeder cattle futures closed down $5.97 to settle at a limit of $8.25 on Friday, as the April contract closed down $7.50 for the week. The limits will be extended to $12.25 on Monday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index rose 2 cents on April 2, averaging $291.95.

In response to President Trump's retaliatory tariffs, CHINA imposed a 34% retaliatory tariff on all US goods overnight. This put some pressure on the market and also contributed to the stock market crash.

The beef industry is facing higher costs on several levels. Drought conditions in key cattle- raising regions have led to reduced herd sizes, making cattle production more expensive. Furthermore, feed prices remain high, increasing overall production costs. These factors are driving up retail prices, which consumers will see in grocery stores.

Beef and veal prices are projected to rise due to a variety of factors, including higher feed costs, drought conditions impacting cattle supplies, and increased demand. While price increases in 2024 were moderate, the USDA expects a sharper increase in 2025 as supply constraints persist. Consumers may have to adjust their purchasing habits, potentially choosing cheaper cuts or alternative protein sources.

WEEKLY COST OF CUTLERY CUT.CHOICE

CATTLE SALES

Sale of cattle, heads

Average weight

Week 13

Week 14

Weekly growth,%

Week 13

Week 14

Weekly growth,%

Bulls (live weight)

3,569

9 812

174.9%

1,513

1,511

-0.1%

Heifers (live weight)

1,247

5,657

353.6%

1,358

1,372

1.0%

Bulls (slaughter weight)

1,472

7,049

378.9%

983

975

-0.8%

Heifers (slaughter weight)

713

1 801

152.6%

822

865

5.2%

WEEKLY WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE OF BULLS

BEEF PRODUCTION                                                                     

Indicator

Week 14

Previous week

A year ago

Weekly growth,%

Growth per year, %

Volume of cattle slaughter

591,000

609,000

614,000

-3.0%

-3.7%

Live weight

1,428

1,430

1,399

-0.1%

2.1%

Slaughter weight

870

870

847

0.0%

2.7%

Beef production (million pounds)

513.0

529.0

519.0

-3.0%

-1.2%

CME: Live Cattle Futures

Week 13

Week 14

Weekly growth,%

April

208.83

202.63

-3.0%

June

204.85

198.20

-3.2%

August

201.00

194.70

-3.1%

CME: Feeder Cattle Futures

April

286.93

279.43

-2.6%

May

285.18

274.88

-3.6%

August

289.68

281.05

-3.0%

For more information on the US cattle market (cattle prices, beef prices by category, and production trends), check out Meatinfo.ru's weekly meat market reviews in RUSSIA and globally. These weekly reviews are available with a subscription.