According to the results of the first half of 2022, a slowdown in the dynamics of the food industry was noted

High uncertainty, unprecedented sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States and a number of other countries are causing enormous corrosion of the Russian economy. The food industry is less exposed to sanctions pressure than other sectors, however, the turbulence of the foreign exchange market, the disruption of production and logistics chains, and the departure of international food producers from RUSSIA affect this segment of the economy as well.
Already in the first half of 2022, a slowdown in the dynamics of the food industry to 1.4% was noted. At the same time, the production of beverages shows continued growth year-on-year by 9.4%. Experts explain this by the fact that against the background of state support for winemakers, the production of wines has grown by 30% since the beginning of the year, and cognac - by 15%. Non-alcoholic factories also contributed to the positive dynamics. Thanks to the competitive struggle that domestic players have entered, trying to take the place of international companies leaving the market on store shelves, the total production of non-alcoholic beverages increased by 9%.
The results of 2021 and the trends of 2022, which are necessary to analyze in order to understand the extent of the current crisis, are reflected in the new INFOLine study "Production of food and beverages in Russia in 2022".
Analysts emphasize that the food industry has consistently demonstrated positive dynamics over a long period. And the prodembago mechanism, launched in 2014, gave the industry an additional boost. Ultimately, 2021 ended with a 3.2% increase in food production – even despite a slight reduction in the raw material base (agricultural output fell by 0.9%). If we talk about drinks, then they came out of the conveyor lines by 8.6% more in comparable prices. The hot summer played into the hands of the producers.
Recalling the food embargo of 2014, INFOLine experts note that in 2021 the process of import substitution in many sub-sectors of the food industry has come to an end, which has allowed domestic producers to successfully realize their EXPORT potential. According to the agency’s specialists, the share of ready-made beverages and food products accounted for 39% of the total exports of food products and raw materials, or $14.8 billion ( a 32% year-on-year growth, which is explained both by an increase in exports and and rising prices for products on the international market). The largest weight in the export of products of medium and higher processing, as before, was shown by vegetable oils and fats - 38%. The second place or 6% is occupied by chocolate and confectionery products from it.
The results of a market survey of companies involved in the production of food products allow INFOLine specialists to draw the following conclusions: in 2021, enterprises retained a focus on export development, and Kazakhstan remained their main export market. The share of companies that reported deliveries of their products to this country amounted to 80%. In addition to other EAEU countries (Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan), Russian suppliers in 2021 actively developed destinations in Asia and Europe.
In general, the share of exports in sales exceeding 10% was reported by 22% of the largest suppliers surveyed by INFOLine, for another 22% of respondents it varies in the range of 3–10%.
As for export plans for the whole of 2022, even in the face of sanctions and the current foreign policy situation, about 46% of manufacturers reported their intention to increase supplies. 27% of respondents are trying to maintain the level of last year, and about 26% are forced to reduce export sales. According to INFOLine, industry participants will look for new sales regions and work to simplify supplies to existing destinations.
Noting the factors that have a significant impact on the development of the industry today and will not weaken their impact in the future, INFOLine experts highlight:
disruption of supply chains,
import dependence in packaging and packaging,
lack of ingredients,
diversification and forced business consolidation,
a decrease in investment activity in the food and processing industries,
a reduction in consumption within the country against the backdrop of falling incomes of the population, and
a decrease in export potential.
These conclusions of experts are confirmed by the data of the INFOLine survey "Expectations for the dynamics of the consumer market in 2022".
FACTORS MOST STRONGLY OBSTRUCTING THE COMPANY'S DEVELOPMENT, %