Global production of poultry and pork will increase due to rapid growth in Asia

According to forecasts, by 2030, global meat production will increase by almost 44 million tons and will reach 373 million tons.

Growth will be supported by stronger profitability, especially in the early years of the forecast period when meat prices recover from COVID 19. Overall, the largest increase in meat production will occur in developing regions, which will account for 84% of this projected increase. Asia-Pacific market share will return to 41% after falling during the ASF crisis. 

The European Union, Brazil and Russia will gradually reduce production from current levels.

Poultry meat will continue to be the main driver of meat production growth, although it will grow at a slower pace in the forecast period relative to the last decade. The favorable meat-to-feed cost ratio, together with a short production cycle, allows poultry producers to respond quickly to market signals. Poultry production will expand rapidly driven by strong productivity growth in China, Brazil and the US .

Rapid growth is also projected in Asia, as the elimination of pork will benefit the poultry industry in the short term.

Pork production is projected to rise to 127 million tonnes by 2030, up 13% from the 2018 baseline. The ASF outbreak in Asia, which began in late 2018, will continue to affect many countries in the early years of the forecast period, with China , the Philippines and Vietnam particularly affected. Due to ASF outbreaks, global pork production is projected to be below the previous peak until 2023, after which it is expected to rise steadily for the remainder of the forecast period.

This forecast assumes pork production in China and Vietnam will start to increase in 2021 and reach the level of 2017 by 2023. Much of the increase in pork production in ASF affected regions will be the result of a shift from homestead farming to commercial production.

 Pork production in Europe is expected to decline somewhat as environmental and social concerns limit its expansion. Russia, the world's fourth-largest pork producer, has nearly doubled pork production over the past decade in response to import bans and domestic policies to restructure and stimulate production. It is assumed that Russia will be able to increase pork production by another 10% by 2030.

And this fact will be taken into account when preparing the monthly analytical report Meatinfo.ru