The Geopolitics of Meat: Argentina's Chessboard

CHINA , the United States , Brazil . International politics will once again play a decisive role in the coming beef trade cycles, according to Rosgan's latest report, published in Lote de Noticias. The study focuses on the pieces on the chessboard that continue to shift and directly and indirectly influence the trade landscape.

"We are ending 2025 with lower shipment volumes but very good revenue levels. According to Indec, from the beginning of the year to October, beef exports (excluding bones) reached approximately 588,800 tonnes, worth approximately $3,155.1 million," the report states.

Argentina's livestock sector will spend US$20.322 billion in 2025.

Compared to the same period in 2024 , this represents an 8.5% decrease in EXPORT volume, but a 26% increase in revenue. The average price of all chilled and frozen beef exported during this period was approximately $5,360 per tonne, up 38% from the previous year's average price of $3,884 per tonne.

The winding path to MEAT

Rosgan notes that export performance was extremely uneven throughout the year. The first four months were seriously hampered by the low competitiveness of local industry, leading to a 20% year-on-year decline in export volumes. The second four months saw a recovery of lost ground and favorable pricing conditions, and by the end of the year, performance remained stable, although with little prospect of recovering from the losses accumulated in the first few months.

"While November is typically a month of high export volumes, this year's potential to close the gap compared to 2024 is limited. The recent rise in local livestock prices significantly weakens the export industry's competitiveness in a market that is projected to become much more demanding," the report explains.

The US is throwing itself towards Brazil

On the other hand, the tariff reduction on Brazilian beef announced by the US government significantly increases the competitiveness of the neighboring country. A 40% tariff reduction for the world's leading beef exporter, operating in a market that is in need of supplies but closely monitors domestic prices, significantly changes the trade situation.

Although Argentina expanded its preferential access to this market thanks to a bilateral agreement reached by both leaders, recent data highlights Brazil's competitiveness. In October, Brazil exported 10,800 tonnes to the US, while Argentina, despite more favorable tariff terms, supplied 3,400 tonnes at an average price 6% higher than its neighbor.

Chinese mystery

Meanwhile, China, undoubtedly a key player in the international market, which was scheduled to announce the results of its investigation into import protection measures launched last December this week, has once again postponed its final decision, this time to January 26. While this decision applies to all producing countries, in the specific case of Argentina, which concentrates 70% of its beef exports in this single region, the announcement was received with some relief. it allows the country to finish the year without disruption during a period when China typically experiences higher purchasing activity, and also opens a potential window for negotiations over the next 60 days.

Beyond this temporary relief, however, the resolution China will finally announce in January could represent a significant game-changer for 2026. In this sense, the potential impact on Argentina will stem not only from possible direct measures—quotas or tariffs—but also from the indirect impact that China's decisions have on other competitors and on global trade.

In this context, the US decision to retroactively lift the additional tariff on Brazilian beef is no coincidence. If China imposes a quota that forces Brazil to redirect supplies elsewhere, the US will become the primary alternative, capable of exerting downward pressure on prices —one of the US administration's clear goals.

Diversify your directions

This situation is forcing Argentina to diversify its export destinations, looking beyond China and even the United States, where significant potential exists for volume growth. This year, of the 30% of shipments not destined for China, the main destinations were: 29% to the European Union, 24% to Israel, 19% to the United States, 10% to Chile, 3% to CANADA , 3% to Brazil, 2% to Mexico, 1% to Peru, and 1% to RUSSIA . Other markets with smaller shares but high growth potential include the Philippines, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

Argentina currently has 97 authorized markets for beef exports. However, in 2024, shipments were made to only 43 of them. According to available INDEC data (some destinations are listed as confidential), Argentina exported to 24 countries this year, compared to 37 countries reported for the same period last year.

As Argentina deepens trade relations and agreements with more countries, it will significantly reduce its exposure to potential regulatory changes by major players that directly or indirectly affect its competitiveness.

In this context, international politics will again play a decisive role in the coming cycles.