The Philippines is close to breaking its pork import record.

The latest official forecasts point to a moderate recovery in pork production in 2025, estimated at around 980,000 tonnes, up 2% from the previous year, following the devastating effects of African swine fever ( ASF ) that ravaged the country in the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025.

The ASF outbreak led to a 5.6% decline in pork production in the first half of 2025. This decline is being reduced thanks to disease control and vaccine rollout, strengthened biosecurity measures, and pig restocking programs. However, the pig farming sector has not yet recovered to pre-outbreak levels, particularly among smallholder farmers, who account for over 70% of the national pork herd.

The Philippine government , recognizing the HEALTH and economic impacts, stepped up efforts through the Department of Agriculture, distributing breeding stock, building high-safety farms, and promoting the use of vaccines such as the Vietnamese AVAC vaccine. At the same time, localized diagnostic kits capable of rapidly detecting ASF were developed, facilitating the control and restoration of the swine population.

Despite these achievements, demand for MEAT continues to outpace domestic supply. Domestic pork consumption is projected to grow by 4% in 2026, driven by population growth (projected to reach nearly 122 million) and economic growth. Pork remains the primary source of protein for most Filipinos, putting pressure on prices and forcing the government to intervene by imposing recommended maximum prices, although it struggles to maintain them due to low market activity.

This imbalance has turned the Philippines into a strategic market for major meat exporters. Pork imports are expected to reach 700,000 tonnes in 2025, representing growth of 7%. Brazil has established itself as a key supplier, accounting for more than half of imports in the first half of 2025, followed by the European Union, CANADA , and the United States . Brazil's increased market access, coupled with competitive prices, makes it a key partner, while some European countries and Canada are showing signs of decline due to declining volumes and less competitive prices.

In the beef segment, the situation in the country is more stable. Production remains at around 182,000 tonnes, due to structural constraints on livestock expansion, despite efforts to improve cattle genetics through artificial insemination and live animal imports. The conversion of agricultural land to urban use and the predominance of smallholder farms are hindering significant expansion of the beef production sector.

Despite this, local demand continues to grow, with consumption expected to increase by 2% in 2026. The rise in the number of restaurants and diversification of consumption, coupled with a growing preference for processed meat products, have led to an increase in beef and buffalo meat imports.

Imports are expected to increase by 3% by 2026, reaching 300,000 tonnes. Brazil, Australia , India, the United States, and New Zealand top the list of beef suppliers to the country, some of which enjoy preferential tariff agreements.

The Philippines' trade policy, which provides for a temporary reduction in duties on pork imports until 2028, has facilitated international product flows, helping to contain prices and ensure supplies during critical periods of shortages. Cold storage of imported meat has become a widespread practice among meat producers and processors to prevent potential disruptions related to disease outbreaks or slowdowns in global logistics.