FAO publishes OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-34

Combined agricultural and fisheries consumption is projected to increase by 13% by 2034, compared with current levels at constant prices. Almost all of this increase is expected to occur in low- and middle-income countries, reflecting rising wealth in these regions. However, while half of the increase in consumption in middle-income countries is due to increases in per capita consumption, in low-income countries three-quarters of the increase is due to population growth.

Rising disposable incomes and urbanization, particularly in middle-income countries, are expected to shift diets towards more diverse and nutritious foods, including livestock and fish products. The share of livestock and fish products in total calories consumed globally is projected to increase by 6% by 2034. In lower-middle-income countries, a more pronounced increase of 25% would result in average daily per capita consumption of nutrient-rich foods in these regions of 364 kcal, higher than the 300 kcal included in the healthy food basket used by FAO to calculate the cost and availability of healthy diets. However, the averages do not reflect persistent inequalities in food distribution within and among countries. Despite significant progress, many people in lower-middle-income countries still struggle to obtain adequate nutrition, threatening the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal of improving global nutrition by 2030. In low-income countries, the situation is even worse: average daily per capita consumption of nutrient-rich animal-source foods is expected to remain at 143 kcal, just under half the calories in the “healthy food basket”. This persistent nutrient deficiency points to important structural barriers, including limited access to affordable, high-protein foods.

To meet growing demand, global agricultural and fisheries production is projected to grow by 14% at constant prices over the next decade, with middle-income countries expected to remain the main sources of growth in global agricultural production. This structural change in production will be driven by the gradual adoption of innovative and improved technologies, capital investment, and more intensive use of fertilizers, feed, and other inputs in middle-income countries. Agricultural production growth will be driven primarily by productivity gains, but crop area and livestock numbers are also expected to expand, particularly in Africa and South Asia, where access to modern agricultural technology remains limited.

Because projected increases in livestock and crop production will not be fully offset by projected productivity gains, direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture are projected to increase by 6% by 2034. The relationship between agricultural growth and emissions will continue to change, depending on the adoption of more efficient production methods and changing land and resource use patterns. Given expected productivity gains, the carbon intensity of agricultural production is projected to decline in all regions over the next decade.

Outlook’s scenario analysis shows that by 2034, it would be possible to eradicate undernourishment and reduce direct greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture by 7% compared to current levels. Achieving these outcomes simultaneously would require increasing food production by 10% and improving agricultural productivity by 15%, assuming widespread adoption of currently available emission-reducing technologies. Innovations such as precision agriculture, improved nutrient and water management, improved livestock feed, and low-cost, scalable practices such as crop rotation, intercropping, and compost-based nutrient management are some of the ways that emissions can be reduced. The pace and scale of technology adoption, infrastructure development, and knowledge transfer will influence how these outcomes are realized in practice.

The forecast highlights that trade flows between net exporting and net importing regions are expected to increase as agricultural production and consumption become increasingly geographically dispersed due to differences in comparative advantage and production capacity, as well as changes in demand for food and feed. As a result, international trade will remain an integral part of the global agri-food sector. By 2034, 22% of the world’s calories are expected to come from abroad. Twenty years ago, this share was 17%, but over the past decade it has remained stable at around 22%. Multilateral cooperation and rules-based agricultural trade are needed to facilitate these trade flows, address food shortages and surpluses across countries, stabilize prices, and improve food security, nutrition, and environmental sustainability.

The medium-term outlook is for a moderate decline in average annual real agricultural prices, reflecting continued increases in average productivity, which reduces production costs. Consequently, individual farmers, especially smallholders, who are often most vulnerable to market shocks and have limited capacity to adopt innovative technologies, face increasing pressure to improve their individual productivity. Thus, continued improvements in agricultural efficiency, innovative technologies, and improved access to inputs, knowledge and markets, as well as effective, locally-tailored business risk management practices, are essential to maintaining farm incomes and livelihoods. Real price movements will also reflect volatility associated with extreme weather events, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions.

The baseline projections presented in this outlook are based on available historical data and the resulting assumptions about economic, political, cultural, climatic and technological developments over the next decade. All of these factors are subject to uncertainty. Thus, the likely impacts of recent events, including changes in trade policy and increased economic uncertainty, have not been taken into account. If these uncertainties persist or increase, they could affect global agricultural markets in the medium term through macroeconomic factors such as inflation , exchange rates and global growth trajectories.