The Bank of Russia notes increased inflationary pressure in January

In part, the increase was due to the accelerated rise in the cost of fruits and vegetables. However, even without taking into account the main volatile components, the increase in prices (seasonally adjusted) was higher than in October-December 2022. The core consumer price index also increased over the month (seasonally adjusted to 0.13%).

In January, annual increases in commodity prices again decreased. The growth in prices for services accelerated due to a one-time factor - an increase in tariffs for the maintenance and overhaul of housing.

According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, annual inflation will temporarily fall below 4% in the coming months due to the high base effect of last spring. But due to the increase in persistent inflationary pressure, this indicator will increase slightly in the second half of the year. Taking into account the ongoing monetary policy, annual inflation will be 5.0-7.0% in 2023, return to 4% in 2024 and will be close to 4% in the future.