Argentina is reviving beef exports.

Export data published by INDEC confirms beef shipments totaling 55,800 tonnes, worth US $298.3 million , in the fifth month of the year. Compared to the previous month, this represents only a 1% increase in volume but an 8% increase in value, reaching an average price per tonne shipped of US$5,343, compared to US$4,931 recorded in April.

Subtracting the bones obtained from cutting from this total volume and converting these figures to equivalent weight of beef with bones, we estimate May's volume at 64,500 tonnes. This is 4% higher than April's export volume, although still below last year's figures.

Indeed, this year, according to the same preliminary estimates, the total export volume amounted to approximately 298 thousand tons, representing a 23% decline compared to the same period in 2024. However, there has been a significant increase in value, allowing for a 5% increase in trade turnover, with approximately $1,286 million accumulated to date.

As we noted in previous reports, the international market is experiencing exceptional pricing conditions. One of the most compelling indicators is the FAO Meat Price Index , based on quotations from leading global exporters.

In May, this indicator reached a new record of 138.2 points, which is 12% higher than the level recorded in May last year and even exceeds the highs reached in 2022 – the peak of the post-pandemic trade expansion.

In short, the fundamentals of the beef market show a very strong environment, and global exports are currently well positioned to reach new records in both volume and price.

Indeed, the world's two largest suppliers, Brazil and Australia , which together account for almost half of global trade, have seen sales growth of more than 15% year-on-year this year, with average sales figures 10-12% higher than those recorded the year before.

However, in recent days, the world has witnessed a new threat posed by the conflict in the Middle East, which could become a new “black swan” for global trade.

Although the region involved accounts for only 5% of global beef demand , a potential escalation of the war—centered in the Middle East but with the active participation of third countries outside the region—could deal a serious blow to the global economy due to the recessionary effect that a conflict of this scale could cause.

Currently, one of the most serious threats is a possible blockade by Iran of one of the world's most important sea routes: the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies pass.

Such a blockage could disrupt the power supply, which would directly impact higher logistics costs and, consequently, the final cost of products reaching consumers, which would directly impact demand levels.

In short, although the meat market currently has extremely strong fundamentals, both in terms of demand and supply, this situation does not completely protect it from the growing conflict emerging in the global context.