Could the resignation of the Spanish Prime Minister lead to a political crisis?

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced his possible resignation due to the corruption scandal surrounding his wife Begonia Gomez. How likely is another political crisis in the kingdom - RBC Pedro Sanchez looked into IT

The Head of the Spanish government, Pedro Sanchez, has canceled all events planned for the coming days to consider the possibility of his resignation. He published the corresponding statement on April 24 on the social network X (formerly Twitter). “I need to stop and think. It is necessary to answer the question whether it is worth it, despite all the dirt into which the right and far-right seek to turn politics,” he wrote. The reason for this statement is the anti-corruption investigation initiated against his wife Begonia Gomez. The prime minister promised to announce the final decision on April 29 at a special briefing.

Sánchez has served as head of the Spanish government since 2018. His Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) came second in the 2023 parliamentary elections, but Sánchez struck a much-criticized deal with Catalan parties, won their support and formed a new government in the fall .

Sanchez believes that the case against his wife was not without the participation of the People's Party (PP), which won the elections, and his other political opponents, including the far-right Vox. The opposition, in turn, demands an explanation from the prime minister.

Who is behind the accusations against the prime minister's wife?

Begonia Gomez is suspected of using her position to lobby for private interests. It is reported that the IE Africa Center foundation, which she led in 2020, has entered into some kind of “sponsorship agreement” with the tourism holding company Globalia. The latter received subsidies to save its Air Europa airline in the amount of €475 million, allocated as part of the EU program to help businesses during the pandemic.

On April 24, a preliminary judicial investigation into this case began. The Madrid Supreme Court clarified that the city court began the investigation against Begonia Gomez on April 16.

The lawsuit against Gomez was filed by the anti-corruption group Manos Limpias (Clean Hands), which has links to far-right politicians in the past. Its leader, Miguel Bernad, served from the late 1980s as an adviser to Blas Piñar, the founder of the Spanish neo-fascist party New Force (FN), which was subsequently dissolved. Bernad also ran for the National Front, created by Pignar after the dissolution of the FN, in the European Parliament elections in 1987 and 1989. He failed both times, and in 1995 he created Manos Limpios.

On April 25, Bernad said the lawsuit filed against Gomez was based on information published “in certain digital media outlets.” The head of Manos Limpias did not rule out that the messages could be false, however, he believes that the court should verify this information in any case.

Meanwhile, the PP is preparing the ground for an investigation into Sanchez and his wife in the Senate. According to Sánchez, the PP initiated the creation of a commission of inquiry to begin persecuting him for political reasons. “I'm not naive. I understand that they are condemning Begonia not because she has done anything illegal - they know that she has not - but because she is my wife,” he wrote on his account.

PP believes that the prime minister must urgently explain himself in connection with all the scandals surrounding his government, party and wife. “His problem is not just political, it is judicial, and this episode casts a shadow on the image of our country in the international arena,” the party said in a statement.

PSOE supports its leader. “We hope that in these days he [Sanchez] will recover from this fatigue that has accumulated for so long. <...> We are all waiting for the decision that he will make on Monday, the decision to continue to be the head of an important project for this country, a successful project in economic and social issues, in which many people are involved who feel part of it, despite the noise, anger and discredit,” said First Deputy Prime Minister Maria Jesús Montero.

Justice Minister Félix Bolaños noted in the La Cafetera podcast that the right has been trying since 2018 not only to delegitimize Sánchez’s government, but also to dehumanize it.

Why is Sanchez's pause sensitive to his party?

On April 25, Sánchez, as the leader of the PSOE, was supposed to take part in a socialist rally in Barcelona, ​​organized ahead of the elections to the regional parliament of Catalonia scheduled for May 12. Despite the fact that opinion polls indicate good chances for the Catalan socialists, supporters of the region's independence pose a certain threat to their positions. The fact is that as part of Sanchez’s deal with the Catalans, the so-called political amnesty law (“for institutional, political and social normalization in Catalonia”) was adopted, after which the ex-head of the Catalan government announced his intention to return to Spain and Spanish politics Carles Puigdemont, who fled the country after the 2017 riots, is taking part in these elections from the Junts party, although he is in France.

In 2017, a referendum on the independence of the region was held in Catalonia, organized by local authorities. And although, according to their data, 90% of the region’s residents expressed a desire to leave the power of the Spanish crown, Madrid declared the plebiscite illegal, did not recognize the voting results and limited the self-government of the region. For the first time in the 39 years of the Spanish Constitution, Art. 155, which suspends autonomy and transfers all regional administration bodies to central subordination. Madrid also sent additional police forces to Catalonia to interfere with the voting process, leading to numerous clashes.

Subsequently, nine organizers of the plebiscite from among the members of the Catalan Generalitat (government) were convicted by the Supreme Court of Spain: they were sentenced to long terms of imprisonment - from nine to 13 years. The court also issued a warrant demanding the detention and extradition of Carles Puigdemont, who had gone to Belgium. However, since he had the immunity of a member of the European Parliament, it did not come to extradition.

According to the latest polls, the Catalan socialist party PSC should come first, winning between 39 and 40 of the 135 seats. The region's pro-independence Junts, led by Puigdemont, will compete for second place.

In addition, on April 27, the PSOE must also approve the list of candidates for the elections to the European Parliament. Sanchez is not expected to take part in that meeting either.

European elections will take place from 6 to 9 June. Polls show that after these elections the European Parliament is likely to move to the right. Analysts at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) predicted in a January report that the far-right Euro faction Identity and Democracy (IID) could almost double in size in 2024 . At the same time, the ratings of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), which includes the Spanish PSOE, are declining. According to an April forecast by Politico, the Social Democrats could win 136 of the 750 seats; S&D is currently ranked 141st.

What may be the future fate of the cabinet?

At least three scenarios are possible. The first involves voting on a vote of confidence in the government in parliament. As the Spanish El Independente notes, Sanchez will be able to remain prime minister if he receives a simple majority. PSOE and Sumar, members of the ruling coalition, have 148 of the 350 seats in the lower house, another 32 seats are held by the parties with which Sanchez concluded the autumn deal.

In the second scenario, if Sanchez nevertheless announces his resignation on April 29, then he will need to nominate another candidate for the post of prime minister from the PSOE; it must be approved by King Philip VI of Spain. The new candidate will have to undergo an investiture procedure in the lower house of parliament. Such a turn could provoke a political crisis, since Sanchez has no obvious successor, Politico claims. Opposition leader Alberto Feijoo of the PP is unlikely to receive enough support to form a government.

The third scenario involves early general elections, which are possible no earlier than July. In this case, Sanchez will continue to lead the Spanish government until May 29. As Politico notes, this scenario could be the most difficult for Spain. According to the latest polls, the opposition PP is 8% ahead of the PSOE.

At the same time, the opposition is confident that Sanchez intends to remain in power in any case, and his current actions are only part of the election campaign.