What warnings to Taiwan and the United States were heard at the main political forum of the PRC

The country's main political event, the Two Sessions, is taking place in CHINA. How Beijing imagines the future of relations with the United States and RUSSIA, what awaits Taiwan and why the Chinese Prime Minister refused a press conference - in the RBC material

What the Chinese leadership said about relations with Russia and the United States

From March 4 to 11, China hosts the “Two Sessions” - meetings of the People's Political Consultative Council, the country's highest deliberative body, and the National People's Representative Council (NPC), a kind of parliament of the PRC. About 3 thousand delegates and senior management take part in them, sum up the results of the past year and set goals for the next one.

Opening the NPC meeting on March 5, Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang announced the GDP growth target for 2024 as 5%. He also said defense spending would increase by 7.2% to a record 1.67 trillion yuan ($231 billion).

As part of the “Two Sessions”, on March 7, the annual press conference of the Chinese Foreign Minister and the HEAD of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, Wang Yi, was also held. He promised to further develop ties with Russia, calling them a model of relations between two major powers, and spoke positively on bilateral cooperation in the energy sector. “Russian gas provides energy to numerous Chinese households, and Chinese-made cars drive on Russian roads, which proves the high sustainability and broad prospects of China-Russia mutually beneficial cooperation,” Wang said.

The diplomat also criticized the United States for its “obsession” with containing China. Wang called a worldview in which “only certain countries are allowed to be at the [negotiating] table while others are on the menu” unacceptable, citing almost verbatim a statement by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the Munich Security Conference. “If the United States always says one thing and does another, where is its credibility as a great power? If the United States gets nervous and worried when it hears the word “China,” then where is its confidence as a great power?” Wang asked, warning that a conflict between the two countries would have “unimaginable consequences.”

Senior researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, Igor Denisov, noted in an interview with RBC that Wang Yi’s statements were a continuation of the discussion that began during a meeting with Blinken in Munich. “Both then and now, the Chinese side, in assessing bilateral relations, emphasized the need for peaceful coexistence of the two powers and their controlled competition. This is exactly how a negative assessment of a direct conflict should be perceived, however, there is nothing new here,” the specialist believes. In his opinion, at the current stage a direct military clash between China and the United States cannot be completely ruled out, but Beijing is doing everything to delay the implementation of such a catastrophic scenario.

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When the Chinese authorities previously spoke about relations with the United States, they chose calmer rhetoric and tried to save face, refraining from directly criticizing Washington or the American leader personally, Deputy DIRECTOR of IMEMO RAS, sinologist Alexander Lomanov commented to RBC. However, relations between the two countries deteriorated significantly during the presidency of Donald Trump, and Beijing’s hopes for lifting sanctions with the arrival of Joe Biden did not materialize; instead, the 46th US President continued his course towards economic and technological containment.

“China understands perfectly well that there are no pro-Chinese candidates in the upcoming US presidential elections and that it will be at least the same or even worse. And due to this growing negative inertia of Chinese-American relations, Beijing began to more clearly articulate its attitude towards American policy,” the expert stated.

How do Chinese authorities see reunification with Taiwan?

In his report on March 5, Premier Li Qiang specifically addressed the issue of Taiwan, which Chinese authorities consider a breakaway province. He traditionally emphasized the need for reunification, but omitted the term “peaceful”, which usually accompanied any statement by the Chinese authorities on this topic. Instead, Li indicated that Beijing should be “firm.”

Although the Chinese leadership has deviated from the phrase “peaceful reunification” several times before, foreign journalists paid special attention to Lee’s statement in connection with rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait. In January, the island held presidential elections, which were won by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Qingde. The Office of Taiwan Affairs under the State Council of the People's Republic of China dubbed the vote an election between “peace and war, prosperity and decline,” and Lai himself as “the instigator of a potentially dangerous war in the Taiwan Strait.”

As the escalation progressed, suggestions began to be heard more and more often that China might resort to a forceful scenario. Back in the fall of 2022, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) reported that Xi Jinping ordered the country's armed forces to be ready to establish military control over the island by 2027. In the White Paper, published in August of the same 2022, Beijing suggested the possibility of using force to reunify with Taiwan if “external interventionist forces” cross the “red line.”

Experts interviewed by RBC urged not to attach much importance to the wording used by the Chinese prime minister. Denisov noted that at a meeting with delegates of the All-China Committee of the People's Political Consultative Conference of China on March 6, Chinese President Xi Jinping resorted to the phrase “peaceful unification” and set the task of deepening the integration of the island and the mainland in various fields.

“The Prime Minister’s report is more closely tied to the current situation rather than to long-term trends. This is a signal ahead of the May inauguration of Taiwan's new president, Lai Qingde. But again, we are talking only about a warning to the separatist forces,” Denisov explained. In his opinion, Beijing will build a balance between the practice of involving Taiwan and pressure on the political leadership of the island, based on the first orders of the new president, as well as the position of the United States. For this reason, Li Qiang's speech can also be seen as a signal to participants in the US presidential race.

Alexander Lomanov noted the disinterest of the Chinese leadership in the war in Taiwan, even “small and victorious.” According to him, the conflict will not meet with widespread support and will not strengthen the position of the Chinese Communist Party. In addition, the country has still not fully recovered from the economic consequences of the pandemic.

However, the expert noted that Beijing's efforts for “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan are not yielding any results. The political leadership of the Republic of China insists on sovereignty, despite the fact that it could unite with the PRC on more favorable terms than Hong Kong or Macau. “If for 40 years the opposite side of the Taiwan Strait has not shown any interest in the idea of ​​peaceful reunification, then simply continuing to fly under this flag no longer makes any sense,” Lomanov noted.

Why did the Chinese Prime Minister abandon a long-standing tradition?

Another notable event of the current “Two Sessions” was the decision to cancel the press conference of the Chinese Prime Minister - for many foreign journalists this is a unique opportunity to ask direct questions to the country’s top leadership. As The New York Times notes, the event was “a window into how official China operates and how official China positions itself in the eyes of the Chinese people and the rest of the world.” Li Qiang became the first premier since 1993 to break this tradition. A representative of the NPC said that unless “special circumstances” arise, the prime minister’s press conference will not take place until the end of the current convocation of parliament in 2027.

This decision may be due to the fact that the 3rd plenum of the 20th convocation of the CPC Central Committee, which should be devoted to economic issues, has not yet taken place, believes Alexander Lomanov. “Apparently, the Chinese leadership, for some reason, is not ready to proclaim any fundamental long-term economic concepts now and wants to postpone this until later. This is partly due to the cancellation of the press conference. To release the prime minister so that he can talk about nothing is to create an uncomfortable situation for both journalists and the authorities,” he believes.

In addition, in recent years there has been a tendency in China to transfer powers from state administrative bodies to party ones, Lomanov noted. “Now, for example, the most important thing is not the Ministry of Finance, but the Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs of the CPC Central Committee. All key powers are concentrated in the hands of specialized commissions of the CPC Central Committee,” he says. This is also related to the decline in the role of the Chinese Prime Minister. Moreover, if previously the tandem of the prime minister and the chairman of the People's Republic of China was the result of long negotiations in the highest echelons of power, then Li Qiang was chosen for this position directly by Xi Jinping.

One of the main intrigues of the “Two Sessions” was also whether the NPC would appoint a new foreign minister. After the scandalous disappearance and resignation of the former Foreign Minister Qin Gang in the summer of 2023, Wang Yi, who headed the office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, took over control of the department. However, contrary to the expectations of many observers, the appointment of a new foreign minister was never announced.

Wang Yi’s combination of two positions - in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee - also fits into the trend of the transfer of power from executive bodies to party ones, Lomanov believes. Moreover, in the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee there are currently no “free” members who do not hold another government position and could be appointed to the ministry. Nominating a person who is not a member of the top party leadership to this post would make him an outsider. “The current configuration, in terms of its functioning and direct communication between the Politburo and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is optimal for China at the current stage,” the expert concluded.