Export of pipeline gas from Russia in 2023 will decrease by 1.5 times

After the collapse in 2022, the EXPORT of Russian pipeline gas this year may decrease further - by 1.5 times, to 80 billion cubic meters. m, predicts "Yakov and Partners". Sales may not reach pre-crisis levels even by 2030

Against the backdrop of international sanctions and Gazprom's demands for Europeans to switch to payments in rubles in 2022, its exports have almost halved, from 206 billion cubic meters. m to 122 billion cubic meters. m. This year, deliveries may fall another 1.5 times, to 80 billion cubic meters. m, follows from the forecast of the consulting company "Yakov and Partners" (available to RBC).

Experts explain the continuation of the trend to reduce supplies by the loss of the main export market - the European Union ( EU ): “The forced decline in production in 2023 against the backdrop of the loss of the key export market of the EU may amount to about 30 billion cubic meters. m, and the cumulative reduction in production from the level of 2021 is 120 billion cubic meters. m.

According to the International Energy Agency, pipeline exports of Russian gas to the EU in the first half of 2023 decreased by 75%, or 36 billion cubic meters. m. At the end of March, the Energy Commission of the State Council predicted that this year gas sales to non-CIS countries (not including supplies to the CIS countries) could fall even more, from 100 billion cubic meters. m up to 50 billion cubic meters. m, wrote the newspaper "Izvestia". Unlike oil , gas supplies are more difficult to redirect because they are tied to the main gas transportation infrastructure, the minutes of the meeting said.

Uncertainty with the supply of Russian gas in 2022 and the rise in prices in Europe to a record $3,000 per 1,000 cubic meters. m led to the fact that Russia's revenue from gas exports, according to experts from Yakov and Partners, reached $ 138 billion. But this year, when prices fell and volumes continue to decline, gas export revenues will decline by 68.8%, to $43 billion, they predict. By 2030, export earnings will only recover to $55 billion, according to the study.

RBC sent inquiries to the press services of the Ministry of Energy and the office of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Why gas exports are falling

The export of Russian pipeline gas continues to fall due to the fact that the European market turned out to be partially closed to Gazprom. After the introduction of Western sanctions against RUSSIA, Russian gas supplies there continue only through Ukraine and only through one of the two lines of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. Pumping through Nord Stream 1 and the Yamal-Europe pipeline was stopped, and the new Nord Stream 2 export gas pipeline was never launched (it was blown up in September 2022). Russia also supplies gas to Turkey via the second line of the Turkish Stream and the Blue Stream gas pipeline, and to CHINA - according to the "Power of Siberia". But deliveries to these areas cannot compensate for the “dropped out” volumes that were previously sent to European consumers, experts from Yakov & Partners say.

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In 2023, Gazprom's supplies to Europe will decrease by 55%, to 26-27 billion cubic meters. m, says Sergey Kapitonov, an analyst at the Skoltech Energy Transition Design Center . Deliveries to Turkey may decrease by 7.5% (to 20 billion cubic meters), and perhaps even more in the event of an increase in prices foroil , since the contracts for this country are oil-linked, he adds. In January-May 2023, Ankara has already reduced purchases of Russian gas by 25%. China will help partially make up for these losses, Kapitonov believes: in 2023, it will increase imports by more than 40%, to 22 billion cubic meters. As a result, according to the expert's calculations, Gazprom's deliveries to non-CIS countries in 2023 will decrease by 33-35%, to 70 billion cubic meters. m.

Yakov & Partners experts also suggest that Russia may partially redirect exports to Asian countries. According to their forecast, if the new Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline is launched to China, the construction contract for which has not yet been signed, it will be possible to supply 50 billion cubic meters annually through it. m of gas by 2030. By the same time, transit through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (in November 2022, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said that Russian President Vladimir Putinproposed to create a "tripartite alliance" with them in the field of gas supplies) could reach 5-20 billion cubic meters. m per year. In addition, at the end of last year, Putin initiated the creation of a gas hub in Turkey in order to redirect gas flows there that used to go through Nord Stream 1. It will be possible to send about 10 billion cubic meters more to this hub. m, lead the calculations in "Yakov and Partners". In this case, new export routes will allow additional sales of 80 billion cubic meters. m, but will not completely replace the loss of the European market, they conclude.

What will happen to LNG supplies

Against the backdrop of difficulties with the sale of pipeline gas, supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia continue to grow - for example, last year by almost 10%, to 45 billion cubic meters. m. According to the forecast of Yakov and Partners, this year they will grow by only 1 billion cubic meters. m, but by 2030, when new plants will be launched, they can reach 105 billion cubic meters. m, almost equaling the export of pipeline gas (106 billion cubic meters). But this figure will also be less than the pre-crisis level - 247 billion cubic meters. m.

Now there are two large gas liquefaction plants in Russia: Sakhalin-2 (51% of Gazprom's shares) with a capacity of 11.6 million tons of cubic meters. m (16 billion cubic meters) and Yamal LNG (16.5 million tons, or 22.7 billion cubic meters), controlled by NOVATEK. NOVATEK is also building a second Arctic LNG-2 plant with a capacity of 19.8 million tons, the first line of which should be launched at the end of 2023. The company also planned to build a plant in the Murmansk region for 20.8 million tons. Murmansk LNG should help solve the problem of increasing LNG production in Russia, said the HEAD of NOVATEK, Leonid Mikhelson. “Now, with huge reserves, Russia occupies less than 9% of the world LNG market share, having today only two large plants - Yamal LNG [NOVATEK] and Sakhalin-2 [Gazprom]. And they should occupy at least 20%, according to their reserves, ”he pointed out.

Gazprom, together with a partner, is building a gas liquefaction and processing plant in Ust-Luga (19.5 million tons of LNG), which was planned to be launched at the end of 2024. But on August 1, the head of the Leningrad Region , Alexander Drozdenko, announced that the deadline for the implementation of the facility was shifted by two years: “This is normal in the conditions that we find ourselves in, this shift is absolutely normal.”

Analysts at Yakov & Partners predict that with the completion of all LNG projects in Russia, the volume of exports of liquefied gas from Russia in 2030-2035 could reach 268 billion cubic meters. m. But "the implementation of most promising projects is fraught with risks due to restrictions on access to technology," they warn.

How else can gas be used

Against the background of falling exports in 2022, gas production in Russia decreased by 11.8%, to 673 billion cubic meters. m. According to Yakov and Partners, in 2023 it will fall by only 4.5%, to 643 billion cubic meters. m, and in 2030 it will grow to 799 billion cubic meters. m, exceeding the level of 2021 - 763 billion cubic meters. m.

The study says that the recovery of gas production will be possible due to the growth of domestic consumption. In 2023, according to analysts, it will grow by 2.7%, to 421 billion cubic meters. m, and in 2030 - up to 485-495 billion cubic meters. m per year.

In addition to gas liquefaction, a new industrialization is actually needed to increase its domestic consumption, Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a leading expert of the National Energy Security Fund and the Financial University, believes: chemical and metallurgical projects. At the same time, within the framework of social gasification, an additional only up to 20 billion cubic meters will be required. m per year, and for the development of the gas motor fuel market - up to 10 billion cubic meters. m, he points out.

According to Yakov & Partners, gas consumption in gas chemistry and agrochemistry in 2030 may grow by 27.4%, up to 79 billion cubic meters. m. But this will be possible only if the Russian production technology is improved. In addition, the already announced gas chemical projects, including the Gazprom plant in Ust-Luga, as well as production facilities in the Far East (Amur GPP and Sibur's Amur gas chemical complex), will not be enough to compensate for 130 billion cubic meters. m of gas that "fell out" from the European direction, warns Kapitonov.

The press services of Gazprom and NOVATEK did not respond to requests from RBC.