Economists assessed the potential for the recovery of real incomes of Russians

Recovery of real disposable incomes of Russians after the collapse due to the pandemic crisis will be slow - at best, they will increase by 2% in 2021 after a decline of 5% this year, Alfa-Bank chief economist Natalia Orlova wrote in a review received by RBC.

Indeed, there are no prerequisites for a quick recovery, after a slight rebound in 2021, there is a significant risk of stagnation in real disposable income, which could not return to the pre-crisis level of 2013, warns Natalya Akindinova, DIRECTOR of the Institute for Development Center at the Higher School of Economics.

Alfa-Bank's forecast is more pessimistic than the official forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, which believes that real incomes will fall by 3% in 2020, grow by the same 3% in 2021, and then grow by 2.4-2.5%.

Real disposable money income of the population is money income minus obligatory payments (taxes and fees, interest on loans, etc.), adjusted for inflation. From 2014 to 2017, they continuously decreased, in 2018 they showed near-zero growth (+0.1%), and at the end of 2019 they increased by 1% in annual terms. By the end of the third quarter of 2020, real disposable income was 11% lower than in 2013 (the last year of strong household income growth).