The IEA predicted a halving of Russia's share in gas trade

Russia's share in international gas trade will fall by half, to 15% by 2030, according to the forecast of the International Energy Agency. This will be facilitated by a sharp increase in new LNG production capacity in the usa and Qatar.

Russia's share in international gas trade will fall by half - from 30% in 2021 to 15% by 2030, according to the STEPS scenario (a conservative scenario from the point of view of the “green transition”) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). By 2030, Russia’s net profit from gas sales may fall by 2.5 times, to less than $40 billion compared to 2021 values ​​($100 billion). Analysts expect unprecedented growth in new gas liquefaction capacity: projects on which construction has begun or a final investment decision has been made will increase production by 250 billion cubic meters. per year, up to 885 billion cubic meters. m by 2030.

Significant production increases will occur between 2025 and 2027, with 60% of new projects located in the US and Qatar. The IEA previously reported that LNG trade volumes could grow by just over 130 billion cubic meters by 2026. m or by a quarter, and 70% of the additional supply could hit the market in 2025 or 2026.

IEA experts suggest that additional LNG volumes will “arrive at an uncertain time”: from a demand point of view, this creates difficulties for Russia’s diversification of supplies towards Asia, and also limits the ability to conquer additional markets. The overall demand challenge includes a slowdown in consumption growth from 2% in the 2010s to 0.4% in 2022–2030, structural decline in Europe (EU gas demand could fall by a further 15% to 305 billion by 2030) cubic meters), and the lack of infrastructure in developing countries to use significantly larger volumes of gas in the event of a reduction in demand in CHINA (the IEA emphasized that it was unstable in 2023). The fall in gas demand in the EU will be offset by increased imports to China , India and other developing countries in Asia.

The HEAD of NOVATEK, Leonid Mikhelson, said in June that “now, with huge reserves, RUSSIA occupies a share of less than 9% in the global LNG market, having today only two large plants - Yamal LNG and Sakhalin-2 [Gazprom]. And they must occupy at least 20%, according to their reserves.”

The share of coal, oil and natural gas in global energy supply, which has been hovering around 80% for decades, will begin to decline gradually and reach 73% by 2030, analysts say . By this time, global demand foroil will peak at 101.5 million b/d, but then gradually decline to 97.4 million b/d by 2050. The situation will develop similarly with gas consumption, which will grow to a record 4.299 trillion cubic meters. m by 2030, and then decrease to 4.173 trillion cubic meters. m by 2050. For comparison, in 2022, oil consumption was 96.5 million bpd, and gas consumption was 4.159 trillion cubic meters. m. One of the factors that could accelerate the global transition to renewable energy sources (RES) could be the current conflict in the Middle East, says IEA Executive DIRECTOR Fatih Birol.

The IEA also forecasts that OPEC and Russia's share of global oil supply will remain at 45-48% until 2030 and rise to more than half by 2050 as Saudi Arabia's production increases. Oil production in Russia will decrease by 3.5 million bpd in 2022–2050. Under the IEA's conservative STEPS forecast, oil prices will fall from $98 per barrel in 2022 to $85 per barrel in 2030 and $83 per barrel in 2050.

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In May 2020, OPEC+ reduced oil production by 9.7 million bpd amid falling demand due to the covid-19 pandemic ; in August 2022, the alliance began to move away from cuts, but since November it again reduced production by 2 million bpd. With. The decision is valid until the end of 2023, and in June OPEC+ announced an extension of the agreement to 2024, but at the level of 1.4 million bpd, to 40.46 million bpd. On top of this, Russia and Saudi Arabia in different months of 2023 reduced production by 500 thousand and 1.5 million bpd, respectively, and Russia also further reduced exports by 300 thousand bpd in September-December (in August there was a one-time reduction in amounted to 500 thousand b/d).