False hopes: why the pandemic has not become a driver of innovation

Despite all the problems and trials, the pandemic has proved to be a stimulus for development. The approval of vaccines in late 2020 and the start of mass vaccination campaigns in 2021 have sparked a wave of techno-optimism. If life-saving vaccines can be developed in just a few months, then why can't economic growth and productivity be boosted just as quickly? Many assumed that companies would finally take full advantage of digital technologies. Employees will start working more efficiently remotely by saving time on the road and not chatting with colleagues in the office. it seemed that soon there will be vaccines for every conceivable disease. Governments have begun to invest more in science and increase spending on research and development.

Before the pandemic, forecasts were different. In developed countries, there was a slowdown in economic growth. Since 2010, labor productivity in the United States (the amount of work done per hour) has grown twice as slowly as in the early 2000s. New ideas began to appear less, the pace of innovative development decreased, and the path of technological developments to the average consumer became longer. In his book The Rise and Fall of American Growth, published in 2016, Robert Gordon argued that there are fewer discoveries ahead that can fundamentally change people's lives. An article published in the American Economic Review in early 2020 also argued that innovation will become less and less common even in the most promising industries.