RAND experts named areas for cooperation between Russia, the United States and China

There are few areas where Washington's intentions fully coincide with the positions of Beijing and Moscow, but there are opportunities for cooperation in a number of areas in Afghanistan, the Middle East and even Europe,RAND analysts believe

Experts from the American research corporation RAND have published a report on how Washington can cooperate with Russia and China in the field of security. Their study, titled “Little in common. Prospects for US -China and US-Russia Security Cooperation” (Little in Common. Prospects for US-China and US-Russia Security Cooperation) began even before the COVID-19 pandemic .

In their work, the experts rely on the US National Defense Strategy of 2018, according to which long-term strategic rivalry with China and Russia is a key priority for the Pentagon. (The 2022 Strategy, released after the outbreak of full-scale hostilities in Ukraine, cites China as the main challenge, as it is “the only country that has both the intention to change the international order and the growing economic, diplomatic, military, and technological capabilities to do so”; Russia is designated in Strategy 2022 as a country that poses an acute threat to US national interests.)

RAND analysts came to the conclusion that in the context of strategic rivalry, the three countries have a very narrow field of possible cooperation - interaction will come down to making this rivalry safer. There are more and more obstacles to cooperation, driving a wedge between Russia and China is becoming increasingly difficult, and the benefits of interaction as opposed to rivalry do not outweigh the costs, the researchers emphasize.

On the basis of policy documents and public statements, RAND identified Washington's key foreign policy goals and correlated them with the interests of Beijing and Moscow. “ China and Russia should not be expected to share US goals or help the United States achieve them,” the report says. “So the researchers framed the US goals in more general directions, along which bilateral or trilateral cooperation would look more realistic.”

RAND experts focused on 22 national security issues in three areas: the Indo-Pacific region; Europe and the Middle East; global public goods.

Analysts assessed the potential for cooperation in two aspects: how much the declared interests of China and Russia intersect with those of the United States; to what extent is this or that issue of fundamental importance for these states - in other words, how high are the stakes? Based on this, the experts identified three types of cooperation potential - high, medium and low.

Indo-Pacific - low potential

In this region, the overall potential for cooperation is low. The interests of the United States, China and Russia fully coincide only on the issue of the denuclearization of North Korea, but in practice the parties cannot achieve this goal. “Beijing and Moscow prefer stability to denuclearization and induce the US to make concessions on this issue, abandoning the requirement to ensure a complete and irreversible denuclearization that would be verifiable,” analysts say. The situation is unlikely to change any time soon, so the US is better off focusing on short-term goals such as cooperation with China on North Korean nuclear weapons if the North Korean regime falls. Experts do not stake on Russia in this matter.

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Washington and Moscow have an average potential for cooperation in this region in the fight against terrorism and Islamists in Afghanistan and Southeast Asia.

RAND also highlights other aspects - maintaining peace in the region, maintaining and promoting regional alliances, strategic cooperation with Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam, resolving differences between China and Taiwan, India's strategic orientation. And although the interests of countries coincide in some of them, the potential for interaction in all these areas is low.

Europe and the Middle East - more potential

In these regions, the prospects for cooperation are somewhat better than in the Indo-Pacific. The average potential for interaction with both Russia and China is in such areas as the settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict and countering Iran and the groups it supports. No one is interested in Tehran getting nuclear weapons, analysts say, Moscow and Beijing are making efforts to save the Iranian nuclear deal; Russia has also promised in the past to contain Iranian forces in Syria.

While there is no consensus on what the future of Ukraine should be, the US and Russia can cooperate on a tactical dimension, such as agreeing on how to reduce the intensity of hostilities, address humanitarian concerns, and keep the conflict from escalating further. The conflict cannot be resolved without the participation of Russia in this, the experts concluded.

Common challenges to the world - high potential

Analysts focused on eight global aspects: free access to space, combating transnational crime, countering extremist organizations, maintaining global stability, access to air and sea resources, preventing a nuclear arms race, preventing the militarization of the Arctic, and maintaining open cyberspace. Here the space for cooperation is much wider. At the same time, analysts assessed the potential for interaction between the United States and China as high in maintaining global stability.

“The United States, China and Russia support the promotion of global stability, but disagree on what means to use to achieve this,” the report states. “The US views China and Russia’s support for repressive regimes as counterproductive, while China and Russia see US promotion of democracy and human rights and military intervention as destabilizing.” However, the growing role of China in the peacekeeping sphere may provide grounds for cooperation.

“Global public goods - Global Commons - are such goods, without which the existence of the international system will be difficult. The interaction of international players is important here,” Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, said in an interview with RBC. — For example, it is difficult to ensure global food security without Russia, since it is one of the leading suppliers of food to world markets. Even under the current conditions, the United States is ready to make concessions in terms of sanctions restrictions on Russian exports of food and mineral fertilizers.”

Another global good is the control of climate change. Since the United States, China and Russia are among the leaders in greenhouse gas emissions, cooperation in this area is inevitable, the expert is sure. He sees the possibility of interaction in a number of other areas - cooperation in the Arctic, work on a common cybersecurity space, space exploration. National programs can be successful, but their effectiveness will be lower than if they were implemented together, and the sooner countries realize that such cooperation is necessary, the less losses they will be able to achieve it, Kortunov concluded.

What prevents building cooperation between the United States, Russia and China

RAND experts identify eight obstacles to such cooperation.

Mutual distrust of countries. Domestic political costs - rapprochement on certain issues may not resonate with domestic audiences. The problem of definitions - when discussing general issues, the parties can use terms that mean different things. Third Party Involvement – ​​It is important for rivals to take into account the interests of other players whose consent or participation affects the success of joint ventures. The interdependence of different issues - topics on which cooperation is real, are often linked to issues on which cooperation is impossible. Lack of prompt response - the parties are in no hurry to resolve issues that they can deal with together. Legal restrictions. Lack of resources - one or another party may be limited in its ability to connect to a solution to a common problem.

“For the United States, one of the key geopolitical challenges is the simultaneous interaction with two great adversary powers,” analysts say. One of the positive effects of collaboration is that it helps build trust. However, according to RAND, such interaction, for example, in the field of trade inevitably leads to concessions. Therefore, decision makers in Washington should carefully consider in what areas they need to cooperate with this or that rival, the analysts concluded.

RAND Corporation (from the English R esearch and D evelopment - “Research and Development”) is an American non-profit research organization. It has been operating since 1948, it is engaged in the analysis of strategic problems and the development of new strategic concepts. RAND focuses on a wide range of issues, from national security, international relations and energy to infrastructure, healthcare and social justice. The think tank provides services to a number of government agencies, primarily in the United States.