How the African Swine Fever Outbreak in China Has Impacted Global Pork Markets

That’s what happened when African swine fever ( ASF ) spread from Europe to CHINA in 2018 , one of the largest animal disease outbreaks ever recorded. The outbreak reduced China’s pork supply, and pork prices in China more than doubled to record highs. Since China accounts for nearly half of the world’s pork production and consumption, the extent to which China’s reduced pork supply affected pork-exporting countries was significant.

The ASF virus moved from Europe to China in August 2018 and then spread rapidly across the country. The virus has affected China's pork supply more than the number of officially reported outbreaks would suggest.

Following the first cases of ASF in China, pig populations went through a 30-month cycle of decline and recovery from Q3 2018 to 2021 (Q1).

China lost about 27.9 million tons of pork production over a 30-month cycle. During these months, China imported a record amount of pork, but the imports only replaced one-fifth of the lost production. Thus, China experienced a pork supply deficit for about 18 months, especially in the second half of 2019 and most of 2020.

Rising pork prices have slowed the spread of the disease. Pork prices in China more than doubled, with most of the increase occurring about a year after the first outbreaks. Pork prices remained high for 14 months and then fell rapidly throughout 2021. Pork prices returned to levels close to pre-ASF levels about 38 months after the first outbreaks.

Pork exports to China increased in 2019–2020. In 2020, China accounted for 45 percent of global pork imports.

A total of 31 countries exported pork to China, but the European Union accounted for 58 percent of exports. The United States was the second-largest pork exporter to China with a 15 percent share, despite trade tensions that coincided with the ASF outbreak in China.

During China's 14-month peak in import demand, the share of pork exported to China increased for leading pork-exporting countries. Sales of higher-priced cuts grew fastest.

The impact on pork markets outside China has been relatively modest. For example, pork price increases in the three leading pork exporting countries ( the United States , Germany , and Spain) were relatively short-lived and much smaller in magnitude than the price increases in China.

Volatility in the Chinese pork market is a continuing source of uncertainty for exporters despite a recovery in Chinese production.