Argentina's meat exports continue to decline

We must make every effort to find good news for Argentine beef exports. At present, the positive data indicate that in terms of prices, the average value per tonne of product shipped has increased the most year on year in the region, registering an increase of more than 30 percentage points compared to more moderate percentage points for other countries of origin. Rosgan emphasizes that this improvement in the achieved prices is observed in almost all the main destinations of Argentine beef.

The flip side of this good news is the trade volumes. Data released by INDEC indicate total overseas sales of 52.1 thousand tonnes of product weight last month, up 17% from the 44.5 thousand tonnes reported the previous month. However, compared to last year’s figures, April has yet to recover and is the fifth month in a row with lower sales figures in terms of trade volume.

Thus, in the first four months of the year, the total volume of shipments reached 195.7 thousand tons of products, which brought in about US $964 million in revenue. Compared with 260.9 thousand tons exported in the same period last year, these figures indicate a 25% drop in volume, but only a 2% drop in value.

Rosgan invites us to compare these figures with those of other countries in the region, which in the same international context have managed to increase their exports . In the case of Brazil, its beef exports increased by 12.8% in volume in the first four months of this year, reaching a total of 827.8 thousand tons of product. Uruguay maintained its exports at 126.3 thousand tons of product weight in the same period, slightly higher than the volume recorded the previous year. Paraguay, for its part, increased its foreign sales by almost 20%, reaching 115.9 thousand tons of exports.

In Argentina's case, its exposure to the Chinese market is the highest among countries in the region, as sales to this destination continue to account for almost 60% of total exports. The fact is that, compared to last year, the Asian giant purchased 40% less beef in these first four months of 2025.

Renowned cattle market analyst Ignacio Iriarte says domestic consumption is performing remarkably well, but he can't fully explain the collapse in exports, which is largely due to a sharp drop in Chinese purchases. "We can't continue to operate in this market at these prices ; the numbers don't add up. The beef business is an exceptional prospect internationally, but we're exporting less and less. Meanwhile, the United States is on the hooksteer prices are $8 and are a magnet for beef exporters around the world, although the cycle may be starting to change."

According to the General Administration of Customs (GACC), CHINA imported just over 890,000 tonnes of beef from all sources from January to April, down 11% from its purchases in the same period last year. That means, at least so far, the numbers don’t support the USDA’s forecast, which says China will maintain its purchase levels in 2025, up a full 2% from last year, potentially taking its annual purchases to over 3.8 million tonnes.

Rosgan says that to meet USDA's forecast, Chinese purchases would have to accelerate significantly over the next eight months of the year, maintaining an average volume of more than 250,000 tons per month, which is unlikely based on current trends.

While the low prices China paid until last year appear to be fading, current prices also do not reflect the current tight supply situation in the global balance, a situation that could even worsen in the coming years. Some warn that it is running out of suppliers.

Rosgan technicians point out that the recent Sial International Food Fair held in China did not fully live up to expectations. Although the agreed prices for our country's products are not bad, strong competition from Brazil and Australia, each of which is represented in different product segments, raises the bar too high for other competitors in a difficult to interpret demand environment.

It is worth remembering that the results of a safeguards investigation launched by the Chinese government last December, which includes Argentina as a supplier, are due to be known in the coming months. It is suspected that the impact will not go unnoticed by those selling beef across the Great Wall, whether in the form of tariffs or market access quotas. Australian sources believe their country risks paying a 12% tariff for increasing supplies.

Argentina's exports are on a worrying path so far. At the same time, since last October, our country has been increasing its beef imports , from virtually zero until this month to just over 1,600 tons in April 2025. Brazil is the main supplier, having accumulated about 3,400 tons this year. Paraguay and Uruguay, with smaller volumes, should also be added. It remains to be seen how this trend will develop, but if it continues, we should expect between 15,000 and 20,000 tons of beef. This is not much, but it is an indicator of the strengthening of the peso.

Meanwhile,REUTERS reports that our country is close to an agreement on exporting offal to China. Chinese authorities are expected to visit Argentina on June 8 for new rounds of talks. Both sides are working to finalize technical details.