EU: Beef Market Year in Review and Forecast for 2025

The European Commission forecasts a 0.5% decline in beef production in 2024 compared to 2023, with a further decline of 1% expected in 2025, due to structural changes and a reduction in herd numbers. The tight supply of beef continues to support EU beef producer prices and live animal prices. Moderate feed prices and high carcass prices are expected to support higher fattening margins. 

High consumer prices due to limited supply have led to a slight decline in EU per capita beef consumption in 2024, which is expected to fall by 1.7% year-on-year to 9.6 kg. 

Forecasts

EU beef production is projected to decline by around 1% in 2025 following a similar decline in 2024. This continued decline is attributed to structural changes and a decline in the EU livestock population.

Despite limited supply, EU beef exports increased by 17% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, driven by demand from markets such as Turkey , Algeria, Switzerland and the Philippines. This upward trend is expected to continue in 2025.  EU beef imports fell by 2.2% in the first half of 2024, with a further decline of 1.5% expected in 2025. This is due to lower production in exporting countries such as Brazil and the declining attractiveness of the EU as an import market. 

Limited beef supplies are expected to continue to support EU beef producer prices in 2025. Moderate feed prices and high carcass prices are expected to support higher finisher margins.

With global beef supply forecast to decline by 1% in 2025 due to lower production in major beef producing countries, including the EU, this could impact trade flows and market dynamics.

In summary, the EU beef market in 2025 is expected to face continued production declines, persistently high prices and changing trade dynamics influenced by both regional and global factors.