The West, against the backdrop of sanctions, increased supplies to Russia's neighbors

Supplies of products from countries with developed economies have increased sharply to states neighboring Russia, sometimes offsetting the effect of sanctions. Scientists noted that we are not necessarily talking about violation of sanctions, but the dynamics “raise questions”

The European Union, the United States and Great Britain reduced exports to Russia after the outbreak of full-scale fighting in Ukraine , but the dynamics become less pronounced if we take into account supplies to Russia’s neighboring countries - Turkey, India and China . This is stated in a study by the Institute of International Finance (IIF), and Kommersant drew attention to it.

These data demonstrate the complexity of regulating global trade, taking into account the level of its decentralization and the distribution of trade flows, the IIF summarized. “At the same time, the data does not automatically indicate a violation of the sanctions regime - we see only the total volumes of supplies, although the reorientation of exports to landlocked countries raises questions,” experts explained.

Direct supplies to Russia from China , Turkey and India increased sharply (about 80, 60 and 40%) compared to January-September 2019, but at the same time, exports from these three countries also increased to the Central Asian republics. Exports to Russia grew from Switzerland, but not so significantly.

The Baltic countries and Brazil compensated for the reduction in supplies to Russia by exporting to Central Asia. Poland also sharply increased supplies of products to this region , but in total supplies fell by about 10%. Exports from other countries fell more sharply and were only partially offset by increased sales to countries neighboring Russia.

The volumes of export reorientation turned out to be maximum for the countries from which supplies fell the most - these are Denmark, Finland, the UK and the USA, analysts indicate. In this case, we are talking about the share of supplies to Central Asia compared to 2019 - it may increase even if the total volume of exports to the region decreases. In the case of the USA, this share increased from 30 to 90%, in Finland - from 10% to 90%.

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Eurostat reported similar dynamics in EU trade statistics at the beginning of the year. Exports of goods from EU countries to Russia from March to November 2022 fell by 47% year-on-year (to €36.3 billion), and exports of European goods to countries neighboring Russia (Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan , Georgia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan) during the same time grew by 48% (to €20.3 billion).

This may indicate that a significant part of the increased exports is being redirected to Russia, suggested Vaidotas Zemlis-Balevičius, head of data research at Euromonitor International. “This analysis shows that sanctions are not working as expected,” the expert said.

Overall, EU trade with Russia remains low, Eurostat points out, with both imports and exports down significantly compared to the period up to 24 February 2022. About two-thirds of supplies from Russia come from natural gas, petroleum products, nickel, iron, steel and fertilizers. In September, Russia exported a record volume of grain to the EU countries for a year and a half, since March 2022: 180 thousand tons.

The Russian side calls international sanctions ineffective and demands their lifting. President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that the restrictions would remain for a long time and urged people not to relax.